Recent forecasts for Mexico City on August 21 place daily highs near 25–26°C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 50.5% and 31.5% implied probability. Mexico City’s 2,240-meter elevation and ongoing rainy-season conditions, including afternoon cloud cover and scattered showers, typically suppress maximum temperatures to the mid-20s°C range, consistent with climatological averages of 24–25°C for late August. Current model guidance from sources such as timeanddate and AccuWeather shows limited day-to-day variability, with only modest warming potential if skies clear earlier than expected. Traders therefore assign the bulk of probability to 25–26°C while pricing lower odds for 27°C or higher, reflecting the narrow historical range and the moderating effect of monsoon moisture. Updated forecasts tomorrow morning will likely refine these implied probabilities.