Recent model consensus from ensemble forecasts points to a peak temperature near 32–34 °C in Chengdu on August 22, with the market’s tight clustering around those bins reflecting modest day-to-day variability in the Sichuan Basin. Persistent monsoon moisture and scattered afternoon showers are expected to limit full solar heating while high humidity and limited nocturnal radiative cooling keep overnight lows elevated, narrowing the diurnal range. Steep pressure gradients and weak steering flow favor localized convection that could briefly suppress or enhance the daily maximum depending on timing and coverage. Historical late-August climatology shows mean highs near 31 °C with a 2–3 °C standard deviation, so the current 24 %–19.5 %–17.5 % distribution on 33 °C, 34 °C, and 32 °C captures the narrow envelope of uncertainty ahead of the next model cycle.