**Forecast uncertainty around overnight radiative cooling and model spread drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 9°C and 14°C for Moscow’s lowest temperature on August 22, 2026.** Numerical weather models show broad agreement on a mild pattern with daytime highs near 22–23°C and light southerly to southeasterly winds, but they diverge on the precise overnight minimum because of differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and timing of any light precipitation or fog. Some runs indicate clearer skies allowing more radiative cooling toward 11–12°C in the pre-dawn hours, while others keep temperatures closer to 13–14°C under increased low-level moisture or light winds that limit surface heat loss. Official and ensemble guidance available on August 21 consistently places the expected minimum in the 11–14°C range, consistent with the market’s leading outcomes, while lower probabilities on 7°C or below and 16°C or higher reflect the low likelihood of significant cold advection or strong warming under the current synoptic setup. Traders are effectively pricing residual model disagreement and the sensitivity of the daily minimum to small changes in cloud and wind forecasts that will be refined by updated runs through the night of August 21–22.