Current National Weather Service and model guidance indicate Seattle will reach a daytime high in the low 70s on May 22, well above the 64°F threshold that carries 96% market-implied odds. Recent upper-level ridging and northerly flow have suppressed marine influence, allowing clear skies and above-normal May temperatures to develop across the Puget Sound region. Ensemble consensus from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows limited spread around this outcome, with only modest cloud increases possible late in the day. Historical climatology places typical late-May highs near 68°F, so the current setup represents a modestly warm but not extreme anomaly. Any significant westward shift in the ridge or earlier onshore push could trim readings a few degrees, yet latest model runs keep the probability of falling below 64°F below 5%.