Recent MetService and NIWA guidance for Wellington on August 6 projects a daily maximum of 10–11°C under southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, aligning with the 53% and 37% market-implied odds on those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions where the August climatological mean high near 12°C is tempered by limited insolation, stable high pressure, and minimal warm advection. Model consensus and current observations of 7–9°C on August 5 support the tight 10–11°C range, though a northerly shift or delayed frontal passage could realistically allow 12°C. Traders appear to weigh these variables against historical cold-outbreak analogs when assigning skin-in-the-game probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Wellington on August 6?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6?
11°C 54%
10°C 36%
12°C 9%
9°C 4%
MỚI
$27,127 KL.
MỚI
$27,127 KL.
Aug 6, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
4%
10°C
36%
11°C
54%
12°C
9%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 54%
10°C 36%
12°C 9%
9°C 4%
MỚI
$27,127 KL.
MỚI
$27,127 KL.
Aug 6, 2026
5°C or below
$373 KL.
<1%
6°C
$353 KL.
<1%
7°C
$581 KL.
<1%
8°C
$2,141 KL.
<1%
9°C
$3,681 KL.
4%
10°C
$4,345 KL.
36%
11°C
$5,471 KL.
54%
12°C
$4,783 KL.
9%
13°C
$3,476 KL.
1%
14°C
$577 KL.
<1%
15°C or higher
$1,347 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and NIWA guidance for Wellington on August 6 projects a daily maximum of 10–11°C under southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, aligning with the 53% and 37% market-implied odds on those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions where the August climatological mean high near 12°C is tempered by limited insolation, stable high pressure, and minimal warm advection. Model consensus and current observations of 7–9°C on August 5 support the tight 10–11°C range, though a northerly shift or delayed frontal passage could realistically allow 12°C. Traders appear to weigh these variables against historical cold-outbreak analogs when assigning skin-in-the-game probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Khối lượng
$27,127Ngày kết thúc
Aug 6, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and NIWA guidance for Wellington on August 6 projects a daily maximum of 10–11°C under southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, aligning with the 53% and 37% market-implied odds on those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions where the August climatological mean high near 12°C is tempered by limited insolation, stable high pressure, and minimal warm advection. Model consensus and current observations of 7–9°C on August 5 support the tight 10–11°C range, though a northerly shift or delayed frontal passage could realistically allow 12°C. Traders appear to weigh these variables against historical cold-outbreak analogs when assigning skin-in-the-game probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$27,127Ngày kết thúc
Aug 6, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService and NIWA guidance for Wellington on August 6 projects a daily maximum of 10–11°C under southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, aligning with the 53% and 37% market-implied odds on those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions where the August climatological mean high near 12°C is tempered by limited insolation, stable high pressure, and minimal warm advection. Model consensus and current observations of 7–9°C on August 5 support the tight 10–11°C range, though a northerly shift or delayed frontal passage could realistically allow 12°C. Traders appear to weigh these variables against historical cold-outbreak analogs when assigning skin-in-the-game probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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