President Trump's approval rating has plunged to a second-term low of 34% in recent Reuters/Ipsos and Marist polls finalized in early May, driving trader consensus to price a 41% implied probability of dipping to 35% or below at any point in 2026 per the Silver Bulletin polling average. This downturn stems primarily from the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, launched in late February, which has spiked gas prices to $4.48 per gallon—blamed on Trump by 63% of Americans—and eroded support on the economy and foreign policy, with 60% disapproving of his Iran handling. Declines among independents, Hispanics, and even some Republicans have accelerated amid midterm election pressures six months out, though potential ceasefire negotiations or economic relief could stabilize ratings.