**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 56% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, ahead of Republicans at 27%, reflecting polls showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Cook Political Report's January shift to Toss-up from Lean Republican.** This competitive swing district, encompassing the Des Moines metro, saw Nunn secure reelection by just four points in 2024, aligning with Trump's narrow margin. Recent Democratic primary consolidation behind Trone Garriott—following State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement—has strengthened her position, bolstered by DCCC Red to Blue targeting and superior fundraising. With uncontested June 2 closed primaries approaching, Vice President JD Vance's May 6 rally for Nunn highlights GOP mobilization, but traders weigh persistent polling edges for Democrats amid national midterm dynamics and key voting blocs like suburban independents.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIA-03 House Election Winner
IA-03 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
51%
Republican Party
34%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$854 KL.
51%
Republican Party
$847 KL.
34%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 56% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, ahead of Republicans at 27%, reflecting polls showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Cook Political Report's January shift to Toss-up from Lean Republican.** This competitive swing district, encompassing the Des Moines metro, saw Nunn secure reelection by just four points in 2024, aligning with Trump's narrow margin. Recent Democratic primary consolidation behind Trone Garriott—following State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement—has strengthened her position, bolstered by DCCC Red to Blue targeting and superior fundraising. With uncontested June 2 closed primaries approaching, Vice President JD Vance's May 6 rally for Nunn highlights GOP mobilization, but traders weigh persistent polling edges for Democrats amid national midterm dynamics and key voting blocs like suburban independents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,701Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 56% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, ahead of Republicans at 27%, reflecting polls showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Cook Political Report's January shift to Toss-up from Lean Republican.** This competitive swing district, encompassing the Des Moines metro, saw Nunn secure reelection by just four points in 2024, aligning with Trump's narrow margin. Recent Democratic primary consolidation behind Trone Garriott—following State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement—has strengthened her position, bolstered by DCCC Red to Blue targeting and superior fundraising. With uncontested June 2 closed primaries approaching, Vice President JD Vance's May 6 rally for Nunn highlights GOP mobilization, but traders weigh persistent polling edges for Democrats amid national midterm dynamics and key voting blocs like suburban independents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$1,701Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 56% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, ahead of Republicans at 27%, reflecting polls showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Cook Political Report's January shift to Toss-up from Lean Republican.** This competitive swing district, encompassing the Des Moines metro, saw Nunn secure reelection by just four points in 2024, aligning with Trump's narrow margin. Recent Democratic primary consolidation behind Trone Garriott—following State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement—has strengthened her position, bolstered by DCCC Red to Blue targeting and superior fundraising. With uncontested June 2 closed primaries approaching, Vice President JD Vance's May 6 rally for Nunn highlights GOP mobilization, but traders weigh persistent polling edges for Democrats amid national midterm dynamics and key voting blocs like suburban independents.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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