**IA-04's entrenched Republican dominance, reflected in trader consensus pricing the GOP at 92%, stems from the district's R+15 partisan lean and historical blowout margins for incumbents like Randy Feenstra, who is vacating the seat to pursue the 2026 Iowa governorship.** Recent GOP primary field consolidation—following Republican Ryan Rhodes' March withdrawal and Matt Windschitl's February exit—leaves a single unopposed contender advancing from the June 2 primary, bolstering party unity in this conservative agricultural stronghold. Democrats face a contested primary among three candidates, including repeat challenger Ryan Melton, after a May 5 forum highlighted tariffs and farm policy divides. While no recent polls exist, forecasts align with safe Republican status; upset scenarios include a scandal hitting the GOP nominee, unexpectedly strong Democratic turnout amid a national midterm wave, or post-primary momentum shifts before the November general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIA-04 House Election Winner
IA-04 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,946 KL.
92%
Democratic Party
$4,946 KL.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**IA-04's entrenched Republican dominance, reflected in trader consensus pricing the GOP at 92%, stems from the district's R+15 partisan lean and historical blowout margins for incumbents like Randy Feenstra, who is vacating the seat to pursue the 2026 Iowa governorship.** Recent GOP primary field consolidation—following Republican Ryan Rhodes' March withdrawal and Matt Windschitl's February exit—leaves a single unopposed contender advancing from the June 2 primary, bolstering party unity in this conservative agricultural stronghold. Democrats face a contested primary among three candidates, including repeat challenger Ryan Melton, after a May 5 forum highlighted tariffs and farm policy divides. While no recent polls exist, forecasts align with safe Republican status; upset scenarios include a scandal hitting the GOP nominee, unexpectedly strong Democratic turnout amid a national midterm wave, or post-primary momentum shifts before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$9,892Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**IA-04's entrenched Republican dominance, reflected in trader consensus pricing the GOP at 92%, stems from the district's R+15 partisan lean and historical blowout margins for incumbents like Randy Feenstra, who is vacating the seat to pursue the 2026 Iowa governorship.** Recent GOP primary field consolidation—following Republican Ryan Rhodes' March withdrawal and Matt Windschitl's February exit—leaves a single unopposed contender advancing from the June 2 primary, bolstering party unity in this conservative agricultural stronghold. Democrats face a contested primary among three candidates, including repeat challenger Ryan Melton, after a May 5 forum highlighted tariffs and farm policy divides. While no recent polls exist, forecasts align with safe Republican status; upset scenarios include a scandal hitting the GOP nominee, unexpectedly strong Democratic turnout amid a national midterm wave, or post-primary momentum shifts before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$9,892Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**IA-04's entrenched Republican dominance, reflected in trader consensus pricing the GOP at 92%, stems from the district's R+15 partisan lean and historical blowout margins for incumbents like Randy Feenstra, who is vacating the seat to pursue the 2026 Iowa governorship.** Recent GOP primary field consolidation—following Republican Ryan Rhodes' March withdrawal and Matt Windschitl's February exit—leaves a single unopposed contender advancing from the June 2 primary, bolstering party unity in this conservative agricultural stronghold. Democrats face a contested primary among three candidates, including repeat challenger Ryan Melton, after a May 5 forum highlighted tariffs and farm policy divides. While no recent polls exist, forecasts align with safe Republican status; upset scenarios include a scandal hitting the GOP nominee, unexpectedly strong Democratic turnout amid a national midterm wave, or post-primary momentum shifts before the November general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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