Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Miller's commanding position in Illinois' 15th Congressional District stems from the district's deep Republican lean in rural southern and central Illinois, her easy March 17 primary victory, and a dominant fundraising edge with over $833,000 cash on hand as of early May—far outpacing Democrat Jennifer Todd. Traders reflect this skin-in-the-game consensus at 93.5% for the GOP ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with historical incumbent re-election rates in safe seats and no public polling indicating a contest. Late-breaking scenarios like a major Miller scandal, health issue, or national Democratic midterm wave could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high for the challenger.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIL-15 House Election Winner
IL-15 House Election Winner
$21,684 KL.
$21,684 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$21,684 KL.
$21,684 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$15,486 KL.
94%
Democratic Party
$6,197 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Miller's commanding position in Illinois' 15th Congressional District stems from the district's deep Republican lean in rural southern and central Illinois, her easy March 17 primary victory, and a dominant fundraising edge with over $833,000 cash on hand as of early May—far outpacing Democrat Jennifer Todd. Traders reflect this skin-in-the-game consensus at 93.5% for the GOP ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with historical incumbent re-election rates in safe seats and no public polling indicating a contest. Late-breaking scenarios like a major Miller scandal, health issue, or national Democratic midterm wave could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high for the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$21,684Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Miller's commanding position in Illinois' 15th Congressional District stems from the district's deep Republican lean in rural southern and central Illinois, her easy March 17 primary victory, and a dominant fundraising edge with over $833,000 cash on hand as of early May—far outpacing Democrat Jennifer Todd. Traders reflect this skin-in-the-game consensus at 93.5% for the GOP ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with historical incumbent re-election rates in safe seats and no public polling indicating a contest. Late-breaking scenarios like a major Miller scandal, health issue, or national Democratic midterm wave could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high for the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$21,684Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Miller's commanding position in Illinois' 15th Congressional District stems from the district's deep Republican lean in rural southern and central Illinois, her easy March 17 primary victory, and a dominant fundraising edge with over $833,000 cash on hand as of early May—far outpacing Democrat Jennifer Todd. Traders reflect this skin-in-the-game consensus at 93.5% for the GOP ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with historical incumbent re-election rates in safe seats and no public polling indicating a contest. Late-breaking scenarios like a major Miller scandal, health issue, or national Democratic midterm wave could shift odds, though structural barriers remain high for the challenger.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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