Recent polling averages place Amcha Yisrael near or just above Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote, producing seat projections that cluster between zero and six mandates. The new right-wing list led by Ofer Winter draws support mainly from voters who might otherwise back Likud, Religious Zionism, or Otzma Yehudit, creating a vote-split risk that keeps its totals volatile across surveys. Independent candidate-list submission and public friction with Likud and Smotrich have reinforced perceptions of fragmentation within the broader right-wing camp. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with the sub-four-seat outcome favored because many recent samples show the party either failing to clear the threshold or landing at the minimum four seats. Further separation would require clearer polling trends, surplus-vote agreements, or shifts in turnout among core right-wing or reservist blocs before election day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật<4 60%
4-6 42%
7-9 3.3%
10+ 1.3%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
<4
51%
4-6
42%
7-9
3%
10+
1%
<4 60%
4-6 42%
7-9 3.3%
10+ 1.3%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
<4
$1,222 KL.
51%
4-6
$1,145 KL.
42%
7-9
$2,059 KL.
3%
10+
$993 KL.
1%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Amcha Yisrael near or just above Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote, producing seat projections that cluster between zero and six mandates. The new right-wing list led by Ofer Winter draws support mainly from voters who might otherwise back Likud, Religious Zionism, or Otzma Yehudit, creating a vote-split risk that keeps its totals volatile across surveys. Independent candidate-list submission and public friction with Likud and Smotrich have reinforced perceptions of fragmentation within the broader right-wing camp. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with the sub-four-seat outcome favored because many recent samples show the party either failing to clear the threshold or landing at the minimum four seats. Further separation would require clearer polling trends, surplus-vote agreements, or shifts in turnout among core right-wing or reservist blocs before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Thị trường mở: Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,419Ngày kết thúc
Oct 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Amcha Yisrael near or just above Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote, producing seat projections that cluster between zero and six mandates. The new right-wing list led by Ofer Winter draws support mainly from voters who might otherwise back Likud, Religious Zionism, or Otzma Yehudit, creating a vote-split risk that keeps its totals volatile across surveys. Independent candidate-list submission and public friction with Likud and Smotrich have reinforced perceptions of fragmentation within the broader right-wing camp. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with the sub-four-seat outcome favored because many recent samples show the party either failing to clear the threshold or landing at the minimum four seats. Further separation would require clearer polling trends, surplus-vote agreements, or shifts in turnout among core right-wing or reservist blocs before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Khối lượng
$5,419Ngày kết thúc
Oct 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Amcha Yisrael near or just above Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote, producing seat projections that cluster between zero and six mandates. The new right-wing list led by Ofer Winter draws support mainly from voters who might otherwise back Likud, Religious Zionism, or Otzma Yehudit, creating a vote-split risk that keeps its totals volatile across surveys. Independent candidate-list submission and public friction with Likud and Smotrich have reinforced perceptions of fragmentation within the broader right-wing camp. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with the sub-four-seat outcome favored because many recent samples show the party either failing to clear the threshold or landing at the minimum four seats. Further separation would require clearer polling trends, surplus-vote agreements, or shifts in turnout among core right-wing or reservist blocs before election day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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