The October 27, 2026, Knesset election produced preliminary results placing the Joint List at roughly 8.8% of valid votes, well above the 7.5% threshold, with the party securing 11 seats. Pre-election polling averages had projected 8–9 seats for the alliance of Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad, consistent with turnout patterns among Arab voters and surplus-vote agreements. Double-envelope ballots and the final certification expected November 4 have shown only minor shifts that keep the share comfortably above 7.5%. Traders assign overwhelming probability to the leading outcome because verified counts from the Central Elections Committee already exceed the band, while historical precedent indicates late adjustments rarely move results by several percentage points. Only an unprecedented reversal in remaining tallies could alter the positioning.