Economists’ consensus forecasts for Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 GDP, scheduled for release by the Cabinet Office on May 19, center on resilient domestic demand and positive readings in retail sales and industrial production that have lifted expectations for year-over-year growth into the 0.3–0.5 percent range. Recent upward revisions to Q4 2025 data and steady wage gains have reinforced trader sentiment that the economy avoided significant contraction despite higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds reflect this base-case outlook while still assigning meaningful probability to the 0.6–0.8 percent band should external demand prove firmer than anticipated. The imminent data release remains the dominant near-term catalyst that will determine whether current pricing holds or shifts toward higher or lower outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật0.3–0.5% 55.3%
0.0–0.2% 6.6%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.3%
1.2%+ 2.2%
MỚI
MỚI
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
4%
0.0–0.2%
7%
0.3–0.5%
55%
0.6–0.8%
47%
0.9–1.1%
27%
1.2%+
2%
0.3–0.5% 55.3%
0.0–0.2% 6.6%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.3%
1.2%+ 2.2%
MỚI
MỚI
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,277 KL.
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$1,207 KL.
4%
0.0–0.2%
$1,317 KL.
7%
0.3–0.5%
$871 KL.
55%
0.6–0.8%
$546 KL.
47%
0.9–1.1%
$752 KL.
27%
1.2%+
$3,335 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlEconomists’ consensus forecasts for Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 GDP, scheduled for release by the Cabinet Office on May 19, center on resilient domestic demand and positive readings in retail sales and industrial production that have lifted expectations for year-over-year growth into the 0.3–0.5 percent range. Recent upward revisions to Q4 2025 data and steady wage gains have reinforced trader sentiment that the economy avoided significant contraction despite higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds reflect this base-case outlook while still assigning meaningful probability to the 0.6–0.8 percent band should external demand prove firmer than anticipated. The imminent data release remains the dominant near-term catalyst that will determine whether current pricing holds or shifts toward higher or lower outcomes.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Thị trường mở: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$9,306Ngày kết thúc
May 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlEconomists’ consensus forecasts for Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 GDP, scheduled for release by the Cabinet Office on May 19, center on resilient domestic demand and positive readings in retail sales and industrial production that have lifted expectations for year-over-year growth into the 0.3–0.5 percent range. Recent upward revisions to Q4 2025 data and steady wage gains have reinforced trader sentiment that the economy avoided significant contraction despite higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds reflect this base-case outlook while still assigning meaningful probability to the 0.6–0.8 percent band should external demand prove firmer than anticipated. The imminent data release remains the dominant near-term catalyst that will determine whether current pricing holds or shifts toward higher or lower outcomes.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Khối lượng
$9,306Ngày kết thúc
May 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Economists’ consensus forecasts for Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 GDP, scheduled for release by the Cabinet Office on May 19, center on resilient domestic demand and positive readings in retail sales and industrial production that have lifted expectations for year-over-year growth into the 0.3–0.5 percent range. Recent upward revisions to Q4 2025 data and steady wage gains have reinforced trader sentiment that the economy avoided significant contraction despite higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds reflect this base-case outlook while still assigning meaningful probability to the 0.6–0.8 percent band should external demand prove firmer than anticipated. The imminent data release remains the dominant near-term catalyst that will determine whether current pricing holds or shifts toward higher or lower outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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