Recent consensus forecasts for Japan’s first-quarter GDP, due from the Cabinet Office on May 19, center on 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter growth, supported by resilient exports, a modest rebound in private consumption, and firm capital spending. Traders are therefore clustering probability between the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent bins as the final print remains sensitive to small revisions in net exports and inventory data. External risks such as U.S. tariffs and elevated energy prices have so far shown limited drag on Q1 activity, keeping downside scenarios below 7 percent combined, while the narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether the expansion will edge above or below the 0.5 percent threshold.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật0.3–0.5% 49.6%
0.9–1.1% 30.6%
0.0–0.2% 3.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 2.9%
MỚI
MỚI
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
3%
0.0–0.2%
3%
0.3–0.5%
50%
0.6–0.8%
42%
0.9–1.1%
31%
1.2%+
2%
0.3–0.5% 49.6%
0.9–1.1% 30.6%
0.0–0.2% 3.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 2.9%
MỚI
MỚI
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,317 KL.
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$1,404 KL.
3%
0.0–0.2%
$1,357 KL.
3%
0.3–0.5%
$911 KL.
50%
0.6–0.8%
$586 KL.
42%
0.9–1.1%
$792 KL.
31%
1.2%+
$3,375 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent consensus forecasts for Japan’s first-quarter GDP, due from the Cabinet Office on May 19, center on 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter growth, supported by resilient exports, a modest rebound in private consumption, and firm capital spending. Traders are therefore clustering probability between the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent bins as the final print remains sensitive to small revisions in net exports and inventory data. External risks such as U.S. tariffs and elevated energy prices have so far shown limited drag on Q1 activity, keeping downside scenarios below 7 percent combined, while the narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether the expansion will edge above or below the 0.5 percent threshold.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Thị trường mở: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$9,743Ngày kết thúc
May 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent consensus forecasts for Japan’s first-quarter GDP, due from the Cabinet Office on May 19, center on 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter growth, supported by resilient exports, a modest rebound in private consumption, and firm capital spending. Traders are therefore clustering probability between the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent bins as the final print remains sensitive to small revisions in net exports and inventory data. External risks such as U.S. tariffs and elevated energy prices have so far shown limited drag on Q1 activity, keeping downside scenarios below 7 percent combined, while the narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether the expansion will edge above or below the 0.5 percent threshold.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Khối lượng
$9,743Ngày kết thúc
May 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent consensus forecasts for Japan’s first-quarter GDP, due from the Cabinet Office on May 19, center on 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter growth, supported by resilient exports, a modest rebound in private consumption, and firm capital spending. Traders are therefore clustering probability between the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent bins as the final print remains sensitive to small revisions in net exports and inventory data. External risks such as U.S. tariffs and elevated energy prices have so far shown limited drag on Q1 activity, keeping downside scenarios below 7 percent combined, while the narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether the expansion will edge above or below the 0.5 percent threshold.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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