Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.8–2.1% annualized exceeded expectations, but forecasters anticipate a sharp slowdown in Q2 amid elevated energy import costs, a weaker yen near 159 USD/JPY, and moderating real wage gains. Inflation held at 1.7% in June with the Bank of Japan policy rate at 1%, while low unemployment near 2.5% supports consumption yet fails to offset headwinds from softening exports and business investment. Market-implied odds favor 0.0–0.8% annualized growth at 47%, consistent with consensus projections of 0.3–0.6% for the quarter. The August 16 preliminary release and any revisions to Q1 data represent the key near-term catalyst shaping trader positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật0.0%–0.8% 47%
1.6%–2.4% 27.6%
0.8%–1.6% 22%
2.4%–3.2% 6.7%
$45,547 KL.
$45,547 KL.
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
1%
-0.8%–0.0%
2%
0.0%–0.8%
47%
0.8%–1.6%
22%
1.6%–2.4%
28%
2.4%–3.2%
7%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 47%
1.6%–2.4% 27.6%
0.8%–1.6% 22%
2.4%–3.2% 6.7%
$45,547 KL.
$45,547 KL.
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
$1,628 KL.
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$2,792 KL.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$2,558 KL.
1%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,135 KL.
2%
0.0%–0.8%
$15,850 KL.
47%
0.8%–1.6%
$13,104 KL.
22%
1.6%–2.4%
$1,764 KL.
28%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,726 KL.
7%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,137 KL.
3%
4.0%+
$853 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.8–2.1% annualized exceeded expectations, but forecasters anticipate a sharp slowdown in Q2 amid elevated energy import costs, a weaker yen near 159 USD/JPY, and moderating real wage gains. Inflation held at 1.7% in June with the Bank of Japan policy rate at 1%, while low unemployment near 2.5% supports consumption yet fails to offset headwinds from softening exports and business investment. Market-implied odds favor 0.0–0.8% annualized growth at 47%, consistent with consensus projections of 0.3–0.6% for the quarter. The August 16 preliminary release and any revisions to Q1 data represent the key near-term catalyst shaping trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Thị trường mở: May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$45,547Ngày kết thúc
Aug 17, 2026Thị trường mở
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.8–2.1% annualized exceeded expectations, but forecasters anticipate a sharp slowdown in Q2 amid elevated energy import costs, a weaker yen near 159 USD/JPY, and moderating real wage gains. Inflation held at 1.7% in June with the Bank of Japan policy rate at 1%, while low unemployment near 2.5% supports consumption yet fails to offset headwinds from softening exports and business investment. Market-implied odds favor 0.0–0.8% annualized growth at 47%, consistent with consensus projections of 0.3–0.6% for the quarter. The August 16 preliminary release and any revisions to Q1 data represent the key near-term catalyst shaping trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Khối lượng
$45,547Ngày kết thúc
Aug 17, 2026Thị trường mở
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.8–2.1% annualized exceeded expectations, but forecasters anticipate a sharp slowdown in Q2 amid elevated energy import costs, a weaker yen near 159 USD/JPY, and moderating real wage gains. Inflation held at 1.7% in June with the Bank of Japan policy rate at 1%, while low unemployment near 2.5% supports consumption yet fails to offset headwinds from softening exports and business investment. Market-implied odds favor 0.0–0.8% annualized growth at 47%, consistent with consensus projections of 0.3–0.6% for the quarter. The August 16 preliminary release and any revisions to Q1 data represent the key near-term catalyst shaping trader positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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