The Los Angeles mayoral runoff between incumbent Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman remains closely contested ahead of the November 3 election, with mail ballots beginning to arrive. A late-September UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll showed Raman ahead 39% to 28% among likely voters, driven by strong support from younger voters and Bass’s 63% unfavorable rating tied partly to city challenges like homelessness and the 2025 Palisades Fire response. However, one-third of voters stayed undecided—including many who backed eliminated primary candidate Spencer Pratt—creating volatility that aligns with market pricing near even odds on the winner and elevated probabilities for narrow victory margins. Fundraising has been roughly equal, and both candidates continue courting undecided blocs through forums and endorsements while the outcome hinges on turnout and late shifts in the final weeks.