Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands trader consensus at 96.8% implied probability to win the ME-02 Republican primary on June 9, driven by his unmatched name recognition, early endorsement from President Trump in December 2025, and NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program in March 2026, which bolstered fundraising and party unity. Army veteran James Clark, who entered in late 2025, trails at 2.3% amid low visibility and no significant momentum, with no other challengers after the March filing deadline. Absent recent polling shifts or debates, LePage's incumbency advantage in this open-seat rural district reflects historical base rates favoring established Republicans. Early voting is underway, but scenarios like a LePage scandal, health issue, or unexpected Clark surge could alter odds before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtME-02 Republican Primary Winner
ME-02 Republican Primary Winner
$10,194 KL.
$10,194 KL.
Jun 9, 2026
Paul LePage
97%
James Clark
2%
$10,194 KL.
$10,194 KL.
Jun 9, 2026
Paul LePage
$6,854 KL.
97%
James Clark
$3,341 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands trader consensus at 96.8% implied probability to win the ME-02 Republican primary on June 9, driven by his unmatched name recognition, early endorsement from President Trump in December 2025, and NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program in March 2026, which bolstered fundraising and party unity. Army veteran James Clark, who entered in late 2025, trails at 2.3% amid low visibility and no significant momentum, with no other challengers after the March filing deadline. Absent recent polling shifts or debates, LePage's incumbency advantage in this open-seat rural district reflects historical base rates favoring established Republicans. Early voting is underway, but scenarios like a LePage scandal, health issue, or unexpected Clark surge could alter odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Thị trường mở: Dec 18, 2025, 3:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,194Ngày kết thúc
Jun 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 18, 2025, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands trader consensus at 96.8% implied probability to win the ME-02 Republican primary on June 9, driven by his unmatched name recognition, early endorsement from President Trump in December 2025, and NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program in March 2026, which bolstered fundraising and party unity. Army veteran James Clark, who entered in late 2025, trails at 2.3% amid low visibility and no significant momentum, with no other challengers after the March filing deadline. Absent recent polling shifts or debates, LePage's incumbency advantage in this open-seat rural district reflects historical base rates favoring established Republicans. Early voting is underway, but scenarios like a LePage scandal, health issue, or unexpected Clark surge could alter odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Khối lượng
$10,194Ngày kết thúc
Jun 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 18, 2025, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands trader consensus at 96.8% implied probability to win the ME-02 Republican primary on June 9, driven by his unmatched name recognition, early endorsement from President Trump in December 2025, and NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program in March 2026, which bolstered fundraising and party unity. Army veteran James Clark, who entered in late 2025, trails at 2.3% amid low visibility and no significant momentum, with no other challengers after the March filing deadline. Absent recent polling shifts or debates, LePage's incumbency advantage in this open-seat rural district reflects historical base rates favoring established Republicans. Early voting is underway, but scenarios like a LePage scandal, health issue, or unexpected Clark surge could alter odds before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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