Anthropic’s release cadence for Claude Sonnet models, combined with the June 30, 2026 launch of Sonnet 5 as its most agentic version yet, currently anchors trader expectations for the next iteration. Sonnet 5 introduced major gains in coding, tool use, and agentic workflows at lower cost than prior Opus-level performance, following the February 2026 Sonnet 4.6 update and aligning with Anthropic’s pattern of major Sonnet refreshes every three to five months. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT series and Google’s Gemini models, plus Anthropic’s July 2026 Opus 5 release, adds incentive for another Sonnet refresh before year-end, though no official announcements or credible leaks have surfaced since the Sonnet 5 rollout. Key upcoming catalysts include Anthropic’s developer events, potential API deprecations of older Sonnet versions, and any shifts in AI safety or regulatory scrutiny that could affect timelines. Traders weigh these factors against historical gaps when assessing implied probabilities for specific release windows.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNext Claude Sonnet released by...?
Next Claude Sonnet released by...?
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
11%
October 31
55%
December 31
72%
$3,924 KL.
August 31
$562 KL.
11%
October 31
$257 KL.
55%
December 31
$3,105 KL.
72%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s release cadence for Claude Sonnet models, combined with the June 30, 2026 launch of Sonnet 5 as its most agentic version yet, currently anchors trader expectations for the next iteration. Sonnet 5 introduced major gains in coding, tool use, and agentic workflows at lower cost than prior Opus-level performance, following the February 2026 Sonnet 4.6 update and aligning with Anthropic’s pattern of major Sonnet refreshes every three to five months. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT series and Google’s Gemini models, plus Anthropic’s July 2026 Opus 5 release, adds incentive for another Sonnet refresh before year-end, though no official announcements or credible leaks have surfaced since the Sonnet 5 rollout. Key upcoming catalysts include Anthropic’s developer events, potential API deprecations of older Sonnet versions, and any shifts in AI safety or regulatory scrutiny that could affect timelines. Traders weigh these factors against historical gaps when assessing implied probabilities for specific release windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jul 1, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,924Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 1, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s release cadence for Claude Sonnet models, combined with the June 30, 2026 launch of Sonnet 5 as its most agentic version yet, currently anchors trader expectations for the next iteration. Sonnet 5 introduced major gains in coding, tool use, and agentic workflows at lower cost than prior Opus-level performance, following the February 2026 Sonnet 4.6 update and aligning with Anthropic’s pattern of major Sonnet refreshes every three to five months. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT series and Google’s Gemini models, plus Anthropic’s July 2026 Opus 5 release, adds incentive for another Sonnet refresh before year-end, though no official announcements or credible leaks have surfaced since the Sonnet 5 rollout. Key upcoming catalysts include Anthropic’s developer events, potential API deprecations of older Sonnet versions, and any shifts in AI safety or regulatory scrutiny that could affect timelines. Traders weigh these factors against historical gaps when assessing implied probabilities for specific release windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$3,924Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 1, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s release cadence for Claude Sonnet models, combined with the June 30, 2026 launch of Sonnet 5 as its most agentic version yet, currently anchors trader expectations for the next iteration. Sonnet 5 introduced major gains in coding, tool use, and agentic workflows at lower cost than prior Opus-level performance, following the February 2026 Sonnet 4.6 update and aligning with Anthropic’s pattern of major Sonnet refreshes every three to five months. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT series and Google’s Gemini models, plus Anthropic’s July 2026 Opus 5 release, adds incentive for another Sonnet refresh before year-end, though no official announcements or credible leaks have surfaced since the Sonnet 5 rollout. Key upcoming catalysts include Anthropic’s developer events, potential API deprecations of older Sonnet versions, and any shifts in AI safety or regulatory scrutiny that could affect timelines. Traders weigh these factors against historical gaps when assessing implied probabilities for specific release windows.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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