Long-serving Republican incumbent Chris Smith, representing New Jersey's 4th Congressional District since 1981, commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for GOP victory, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean in Monmouth and Ocean counties and Smith's consistent large-margin wins in prior cycles. Recent endorsements, including unanimous backing from Ocean County GOP, bolster his position ahead of the June 2 primaries, where Democrats John Blake and Rachel Peace compete in a low-profile contest unlikely to produce a formidable general election challenger absent polling. With no district-specific surveys showing competitiveness and ratings like Cook Political's "Solid Republican," barriers to an upset remain high; late scandals, Smith's health issues at age 73, or a national Democratic wave could theoretically shift odds before the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNJ-04 House Election Winner
NJ-04 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
8%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$401 KL.
91%
Democratic Party
$0 KL.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Republican incumbent Chris Smith, representing New Jersey's 4th Congressional District since 1981, commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for GOP victory, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean in Monmouth and Ocean counties and Smith's consistent large-margin wins in prior cycles. Recent endorsements, including unanimous backing from Ocean County GOP, bolster his position ahead of the June 2 primaries, where Democrats John Blake and Rachel Peace compete in a low-profile contest unlikely to produce a formidable general election challenger absent polling. With no district-specific surveys showing competitiveness and ratings like Cook Political's "Solid Republican," barriers to an upset remain high; late scandals, Smith's health issues at age 73, or a national Democratic wave could theoretically shift odds before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$401Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Republican incumbent Chris Smith, representing New Jersey's 4th Congressional District since 1981, commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for GOP victory, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean in Monmouth and Ocean counties and Smith's consistent large-margin wins in prior cycles. Recent endorsements, including unanimous backing from Ocean County GOP, bolster his position ahead of the June 2 primaries, where Democrats John Blake and Rachel Peace compete in a low-profile contest unlikely to produce a formidable general election challenger absent polling. With no district-specific surveys showing competitiveness and ratings like Cook Political's "Solid Republican," barriers to an upset remain high; late scandals, Smith's health issues at age 73, or a national Democratic wave could theoretically shift odds before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$401Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Long-serving Republican incumbent Chris Smith, representing New Jersey's 4th Congressional District since 1981, commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for GOP victory, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean in Monmouth and Ocean counties and Smith's consistent large-margin wins in prior cycles. Recent endorsements, including unanimous backing from Ocean County GOP, bolster his position ahead of the June 2 primaries, where Democrats John Blake and Rachel Peace compete in a low-profile contest unlikely to produce a formidable general election challenger absent polling. With no district-specific surveys showing competitiveness and ratings like Cook Political's "Solid Republican," barriers to an upset remain high; late scandals, Smith's health issues at age 73, or a national Democratic wave could theoretically shift odds before the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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