Ongoing US-Iran tensions have produced limited military exchanges without triggering a permanent peace agreement or leadership transition in Tehran, while Russian operations remain confined to Ukraine with no NATO incursion. Oil prices have stayed below $150 amid steady supply, and no US military action against Cuba or confirmation of extraterrestrial contact has materialized. These developments have reinforced trader consensus around an 88.5% implied probability for “Nothing,” as structural diplomatic inertia and absence of sudden escalations continue to define the month’s trajectory through mid-May.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNothing Ever Happens: May
Nothing Ever Happens: May
Nothing
$85,437 KL.
$85,437 KL.
May 31, 2026
Nothing
$85,437 KL.
$85,437 KL.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfOngoing US-Iran tensions have produced limited military exchanges without triggering a permanent peace agreement or leadership transition in Tehran, while Russian operations remain confined to Ukraine with no NATO incursion. Oil prices have stayed below $150 amid steady supply, and no US military action against Cuba or confirmation of extraterrestrial contact has materialized. These developments have reinforced trader consensus around an 88.5% implied probability for “Nothing,” as structural diplomatic inertia and absence of sudden escalations continue to define the month’s trajectory through mid-May.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Thị trường mở: Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
Khối lượng
$85,437Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfOngoing US-Iran tensions have produced limited military exchanges without triggering a permanent peace agreement or leadership transition in Tehran, while Russian operations remain confined to Ukraine with no NATO incursion. Oil prices have stayed below $150 amid steady supply, and no US military action against Cuba or confirmation of extraterrestrial contact has materialized. These developments have reinforced trader consensus around an 88.5% implied probability for “Nothing,” as structural diplomatic inertia and absence of sudden escalations continue to define the month’s trajectory through mid-May.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Khối lượng
$85,437Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran tensions have produced limited military exchanges without triggering a permanent peace agreement or leadership transition in Tehran, while Russian operations remain confined to Ukraine with no NATO incursion. Oil prices have stayed below $150 amid steady supply, and no US military action against Cuba or confirmation of extraterrestrial contact has materialized. These developments have reinforced trader consensus around an 88.5% implied probability for “Nothing,” as structural diplomatic inertia and absence of sudden escalations continue to define the month’s trajectory through mid-May.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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