Recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela and the earlier Iran conflict, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have concluded without broader regional war, sustained economic disruption, or further major-power involvement. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine fighting remains contained short of NATO territory or leadership changes, while no qualifying shifts have occurred in U.S. or Chinese leadership, Bitcoin prices, or natural disaster thresholds. Traders view these contained developments and the elevated criteria for resolution as supporting an 81.5% implied probability that none of the defined events will materialize by year-end.