Trader consensus on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market reflects a 67% implied probability for Yes after five months without any of the 13 specified triggers—such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran, Russian incursion into a NATO country, Trump exiting the presidency, Xi Jinping's removal, Iranian regime collapse, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Jeffrey Epstein appearing alive, Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, Trump acquiring Greenland, or major natural disasters like a 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. Recent de-escalations drove this positioning, including a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce reducing Russia-NATO invasion risks and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets that stopped short of full invasion criteria. President Trump remains secure amid stable GOP congressional majorities pre-midterms, Xi faces no credible ouster threats, and Bitcoin trades steadily. A May 14 Trump-Xi summit could further ease Taiwan tensions, though November midterms pose the primary near-term risk for a Republican Senate supermajority.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông có gì xảy ra: 2026
Không có gì xảy ra: 2026
Có
$557,001 KL.
$557,001 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$557,001 KL.
$557,001 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market reflects a 67% implied probability for Yes after five months without any of the 13 specified triggers—such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran, Russian incursion into a NATO country, Trump exiting the presidency, Xi Jinping's removal, Iranian regime collapse, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Jeffrey Epstein appearing alive, Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, Trump acquiring Greenland, or major natural disasters like a 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. Recent de-escalations drove this positioning, including a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce reducing Russia-NATO invasion risks and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets that stopped short of full invasion criteria. President Trump remains secure amid stable GOP congressional majorities pre-midterms, Xi faces no credible ouster threats, and Bitcoin trades steadily. A May 14 Trump-Xi summit could further ease Taiwan tensions, though November midterms pose the primary near-term risk for a Republican Senate supermajority.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$557,001Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market reflects a 67% implied probability for Yes after five months without any of the 13 specified triggers—such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran, Russian incursion into a NATO country, Trump exiting the presidency, Xi Jinping's removal, Iranian regime collapse, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Jeffrey Epstein appearing alive, Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, Trump acquiring Greenland, or major natural disasters like a 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. Recent de-escalations drove this positioning, including a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce reducing Russia-NATO invasion risks and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets that stopped short of full invasion criteria. President Trump remains secure amid stable GOP congressional majorities pre-midterms, Xi faces no credible ouster threats, and Bitcoin trades steadily. A May 14 Trump-Xi summit could further ease Taiwan tensions, though November midterms pose the primary near-term risk for a Republican Senate supermajority.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$557,001Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market reflects a 67% implied probability for Yes after five months without any of the 13 specified triggers—such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. invasion of Iran, Russian incursion into a NATO country, Trump exiting the presidency, Xi Jinping's removal, Iranian regime collapse, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Jeffrey Epstein appearing alive, Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, Trump acquiring Greenland, or major natural disasters like a 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. Recent de-escalations drove this positioning, including a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce reducing Russia-NATO invasion risks and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets that stopped short of full invasion criteria. President Trump remains secure amid stable GOP congressional majorities pre-midterms, Xi faces no credible ouster threats, and Bitcoin trades steadily. A May 14 Trump-Xi summit could further ease Taiwan tensions, though November midterms pose the primary near-term risk for a Republican Senate supermajority.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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