The open NY-21 seat, vacated after Elise Stefanik opted not to seek re-election, features Republican nominee Anthony Constantino, who won the June 2026 primary with Trump-backed support, against Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien. The district's longstanding Republican tilt, reflected in prior presidential margins and voter enrollment, underpins the 78.5% Republican implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for similar upstate New York seats. An internal Democratic poll from late June showed a near-dead heat that tightened after messaging, sustaining the 18.5% Democratic share by highlighting potential competitiveness. With the November general election three months away and no subsequent public polling shifts reported, trader consensus emphasizes the structural partisan advantage while noting turnout and candidate-specific factors as variables that could adjust positioning before Election Day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNY-21 House Election Winner
NY-21 House Election Winner
$52,400 KL.
$52,400 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
79%
Democratic Party
19%
$52,400 KL.
$52,400 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$24,404 KL.
79%
Democratic Party
$27,997 KL.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open NY-21 seat, vacated after Elise Stefanik opted not to seek re-election, features Republican nominee Anthony Constantino, who won the June 2026 primary with Trump-backed support, against Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien. The district's longstanding Republican tilt, reflected in prior presidential margins and voter enrollment, underpins the 78.5% Republican implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for similar upstate New York seats. An internal Democratic poll from late June showed a near-dead heat that tightened after messaging, sustaining the 18.5% Democratic share by highlighting potential competitiveness. With the November general election three months away and no subsequent public polling shifts reported, trader consensus emphasizes the structural partisan advantage while noting turnout and candidate-specific factors as variables that could adjust positioning before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$52,400Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open NY-21 seat, vacated after Elise Stefanik opted not to seek re-election, features Republican nominee Anthony Constantino, who won the June 2026 primary with Trump-backed support, against Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien. The district's longstanding Republican tilt, reflected in prior presidential margins and voter enrollment, underpins the 78.5% Republican implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for similar upstate New York seats. An internal Democratic poll from late June showed a near-dead heat that tightened after messaging, sustaining the 18.5% Democratic share by highlighting potential competitiveness. With the November general election three months away and no subsequent public polling shifts reported, trader consensus emphasizes the structural partisan advantage while noting turnout and candidate-specific factors as variables that could adjust positioning before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$52,400Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open NY-21 seat, vacated after Elise Stefanik opted not to seek re-election, features Republican nominee Anthony Constantino, who won the June 2026 primary with Trump-backed support, against Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien. The district's longstanding Republican tilt, reflected in prior presidential margins and voter enrollment, underpins the 78.5% Republican implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for similar upstate New York seats. An internal Democratic poll from late June showed a near-dead heat that tightened after messaging, sustaining the 18.5% Democratic share by highlighting potential competitiveness. With the November general election three months away and no subsequent public polling shifts reported, trader consensus emphasizes the structural partisan advantage while noting turnout and candidate-specific factors as variables that could adjust positioning before Election Day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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