Incumbent Rep. Janelle Bynum's dominant fundraising—over $2.2 million cash on hand versus $98,000 for top Republican Patti Adair—combined with a weak GOP primary field of Adair and Jonathan Lockwood, drives trader consensus to a 90.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in OR-05. Recent pre-primary finance reports from early May highlight Republicans trailing significantly, reinforcing Cook Political Report's Likely Democrat rating, upgraded last fall due to the district's D+4 PVI and Kamala Harris's solid 2024 performance here. Bynum faces only token Democratic primary opposition from Zeva Rosenbaum ahead of May 19. Late challenges could arise from a surprise GOP nominee surge, Bynum scandal, or national midterm Republican wave favoring incumbency flips.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOR-05 House Election Winner
OR-05 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
9%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$346 KL.
90%
Republican Party
$136 KL.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Janelle Bynum's dominant fundraising—over $2.2 million cash on hand versus $98,000 for top Republican Patti Adair—combined with a weak GOP primary field of Adair and Jonathan Lockwood, drives trader consensus to a 90.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in OR-05. Recent pre-primary finance reports from early May highlight Republicans trailing significantly, reinforcing Cook Political Report's Likely Democrat rating, upgraded last fall due to the district's D+4 PVI and Kamala Harris's solid 2024 performance here. Bynum faces only token Democratic primary opposition from Zeva Rosenbaum ahead of May 19. Late challenges could arise from a surprise GOP nominee surge, Bynum scandal, or national midterm Republican wave favoring incumbency flips.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$483Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Janelle Bynum's dominant fundraising—over $2.2 million cash on hand versus $98,000 for top Republican Patti Adair—combined with a weak GOP primary field of Adair and Jonathan Lockwood, drives trader consensus to a 90.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in OR-05. Recent pre-primary finance reports from early May highlight Republicans trailing significantly, reinforcing Cook Political Report's Likely Democrat rating, upgraded last fall due to the district's D+4 PVI and Kamala Harris's solid 2024 performance here. Bynum faces only token Democratic primary opposition from Zeva Rosenbaum ahead of May 19. Late challenges could arise from a surprise GOP nominee surge, Bynum scandal, or national midterm Republican wave favoring incumbency flips.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$483Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Janelle Bynum's dominant fundraising—over $2.2 million cash on hand versus $98,000 for top Republican Patti Adair—combined with a weak GOP primary field of Adair and Jonathan Lockwood, drives trader consensus to a 90.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in OR-05. Recent pre-primary finance reports from early May highlight Republicans trailing significantly, reinforcing Cook Political Report's Likely Democrat rating, upgraded last fall due to the district's D+4 PVI and Kamala Harris's solid 2024 performance here. Bynum faces only token Democratic primary opposition from Zeva Rosenbaum ahead of May 19. Late challenges could arise from a surprise GOP nominee surge, Bynum scandal, or national midterm Republican wave favoring incumbency flips.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp