In Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, encompassing Bucks County, trader consensus slightly favors Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick at 50% implied probability over Democrats at 43.5%, reflecting his proven moderate appeal, fundraising dominance, and history of narrow victories in this battleground seat. The race remains tightly contested ahead of the May 19 Democratic primary, where Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie dominates prediction markets at 91% against Lucia Simonelli, positioning a unified Democratic challenge backed by Governor Josh Shapiro's endorsement and national party resources targeting House control. Key factors include the district's swing-state dynamics, potential midterm backlash against the party in power, and limited recent polling; separation could emerge from primary turnout, fresh surveys, or shifts in generic ballot trends favoring Democrats.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPA-01 House Election Winner
PA-01 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
50%
Democratic Party
46%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$1,022 KL.
50%
Democratic Party
$682 KL.
46%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, encompassing Bucks County, trader consensus slightly favors Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick at 50% implied probability over Democrats at 43.5%, reflecting his proven moderate appeal, fundraising dominance, and history of narrow victories in this battleground seat. The race remains tightly contested ahead of the May 19 Democratic primary, where Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie dominates prediction markets at 91% against Lucia Simonelli, positioning a unified Democratic challenge backed by Governor Josh Shapiro's endorsement and national party resources targeting House control. Key factors include the district's swing-state dynamics, potential midterm backlash against the party in power, and limited recent polling; separation could emerge from primary turnout, fresh surveys, or shifts in generic ballot trends favoring Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,703Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, encompassing Bucks County, trader consensus slightly favors Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick at 50% implied probability over Democrats at 43.5%, reflecting his proven moderate appeal, fundraising dominance, and history of narrow victories in this battleground seat. The race remains tightly contested ahead of the May 19 Democratic primary, where Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie dominates prediction markets at 91% against Lucia Simonelli, positioning a unified Democratic challenge backed by Governor Josh Shapiro's endorsement and national party resources targeting House control. Key factors include the district's swing-state dynamics, potential midterm backlash against the party in power, and limited recent polling; separation could emerge from primary turnout, fresh surveys, or shifts in generic ballot trends favoring Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$1,703Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, encompassing Bucks County, trader consensus slightly favors Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick at 50% implied probability over Democrats at 43.5%, reflecting his proven moderate appeal, fundraising dominance, and history of narrow victories in this battleground seat. The race remains tightly contested ahead of the May 19 Democratic primary, where Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie dominates prediction markets at 91% against Lucia Simonelli, positioning a unified Democratic challenge backed by Governor Josh Shapiro's endorsement and national party resources targeting House control. Key factors include the district's swing-state dynamics, potential midterm backlash against the party in power, and limited recent polling; separation could emerge from primary turnout, fresh surveys, or shifts in generic ballot trends favoring Democrats.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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