Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Republican Party an 88% implied probability of victory. Kelly secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the May 19 primary and benefits from the district’s established Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+11. Democrat Justin Wagner, who also advanced unopposed in his primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat that has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. No major polling shifts, candidate controversies, or external events in the past 30 days have altered this positioning, leaving the race rated as solidly Republican by forecasters.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPA-16 House Election Winner
PA-16 House Election Winner
$32,821 KL.
$32,821 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
11%
$32,821 KL.
$32,821 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$20,705 KL.
88%
Democratic Party
$12,116 KL.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Republican Party an 88% implied probability of victory. Kelly secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the May 19 primary and benefits from the district’s established Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+11. Democrat Justin Wagner, who also advanced unopposed in his primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat that has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. No major polling shifts, candidate controversies, or external events in the past 30 days have altered this positioning, leaving the race rated as solidly Republican by forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$32,821Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Republican Party an 88% implied probability of victory. Kelly secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the May 19 primary and benefits from the district’s established Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+11. Democrat Justin Wagner, who also advanced unopposed in his primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat that has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. No major polling shifts, candidate controversies, or external events in the past 30 days have altered this positioning, leaving the race rated as solidly Republican by forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,821Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Republican Party an 88% implied probability of victory. Kelly secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the May 19 primary and benefits from the district’s established Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+11. Democrat Justin Wagner, who also advanced unopposed in his primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat that has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. No major polling shifts, candidate controversies, or external events in the past 30 days have altered this positioning, leaving the race rated as solidly Republican by forecasters.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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