Resilient first-quarter GDP growth of 5 percent in 2026, combined with stable loan prime rates held at 3.0 percent for one year and 3.5 percent for five years through April, has anchored trader expectations for no change in the People’s Bank of China’s benchmark rates during the May decision. Recent central bank commentary highlights the need to monitor imported inflation risks amid elevated global energy prices, while domestic CPI remains subdued near 1 percent year-over-year and policy stays focused on targeted support rather than broad easing. This backdrop produces the current market-implied odds of 97.9 percent for unchanged rates. A sharper-than-expected deceleration in upcoming trade or inflation data, or an escalation in Middle East tensions that materially lifts producer prices, could still prompt a reassessment ahead of the May 19–20 announcement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPeople's Bank of China rate change in May?
People's Bank of China rate change in May?
No Change 98.0%
Decrease 4.2%
Increase <1%
MỚI
MỚI
May 31, 2026
Increase
<1%
No Change
98%
Decrease
10%
No Change 98.0%
Decrease 4.2%
Increase <1%
MỚI
MỚI
May 31, 2026
Increase
$1,458 KL.
<1%
No Change
$2,014 KL.
98%
Decrease
$1,035 KL.
10%
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Resilient first-quarter GDP growth of 5 percent in 2026, combined with stable loan prime rates held at 3.0 percent for one year and 3.5 percent for five years through April, has anchored trader expectations for no change in the People’s Bank of China’s benchmark rates during the May decision. Recent central bank commentary highlights the need to monitor imported inflation risks amid elevated global energy prices, while domestic CPI remains subdued near 1 percent year-over-year and policy stays focused on targeted support rather than broad easing. This backdrop produces the current market-implied odds of 97.9 percent for unchanged rates. A sharper-than-expected deceleration in upcoming trade or inflation data, or an escalation in Middle East tensions that materially lifts producer prices, could still prompt a reassessment ahead of the May 19–20 announcement.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$4,508Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Resilient first-quarter GDP growth of 5 percent in 2026, combined with stable loan prime rates held at 3.0 percent for one year and 3.5 percent for five years through April, has anchored trader expectations for no change in the People’s Bank of China’s benchmark rates during the May decision. Recent central bank commentary highlights the need to monitor imported inflation risks amid elevated global energy prices, while domestic CPI remains subdued near 1 percent year-over-year and policy stays focused on targeted support rather than broad easing. This backdrop produces the current market-implied odds of 97.9 percent for unchanged rates. A sharper-than-expected deceleration in upcoming trade or inflation data, or an escalation in Middle East tensions that materially lifts producer prices, could still prompt a reassessment ahead of the May 19–20 announcement.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Khối lượng
$4,508Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resilient first-quarter GDP growth of 5 percent in 2026, combined with stable loan prime rates held at 3.0 percent for one year and 3.5 percent for five years through April, has anchored trader expectations for no change in the People’s Bank of China’s benchmark rates during the May decision. Recent central bank commentary highlights the need to monitor imported inflation risks amid elevated global energy prices, while domestic CPI remains subdued near 1 percent year-over-year and policy stays focused on targeted support rather than broad easing. This backdrop produces the current market-implied odds of 97.9 percent for unchanged rates. A sharper-than-expected deceleration in upcoming trade or inflation data, or an escalation in Middle East tensions that materially lifts producer prices, could still prompt a reassessment ahead of the May 19–20 announcement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp