Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to no change in the People’s Bank of China’s 7-day reverse repo rate this month, reflecting the central bank’s April decision to hold the one-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% for the eleventh consecutive month. This positioning aligns with the PBOC’s first-quarter 2026 monetary policy report, which reaffirmed a moderately loose stance while citing resilient domestic growth, ample liquidity, and contained inflation that have reduced the urgency for immediate easing or tightening. Upcoming catalysts include the late-May LPR announcement and any fresh data on export performance or external shocks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sharper downside surprises in April industrial output or escalating Middle East tensions that prompt targeted liquidity injections before month-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPeople's Bank of China rate change in May?
People's Bank of China rate change in May?
No Change 98.5%
Decrease <1%
Increase <1%
MỚI
MỚI
May 31, 2026
Increase
<1%
No Change
99%
Decrease
1%
No Change 98.5%
Decrease <1%
Increase <1%
MỚI
MỚI
May 31, 2026
Increase
$1,717 KL.
<1%
No Change
$2,021 KL.
99%
Decrease
$1,530 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to no change in the People’s Bank of China’s 7-day reverse repo rate this month, reflecting the central bank’s April decision to hold the one-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% for the eleventh consecutive month. This positioning aligns with the PBOC’s first-quarter 2026 monetary policy report, which reaffirmed a moderately loose stance while citing resilient domestic growth, ample liquidity, and contained inflation that have reduced the urgency for immediate easing or tightening. Upcoming catalysts include the late-May LPR announcement and any fresh data on export performance or external shocks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sharper downside surprises in April industrial output or escalating Middle East tensions that prompt targeted liquidity injections before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,268Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to no change in the People’s Bank of China’s 7-day reverse repo rate this month, reflecting the central bank’s April decision to hold the one-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% for the eleventh consecutive month. This positioning aligns with the PBOC’s first-quarter 2026 monetary policy report, which reaffirmed a moderately loose stance while citing resilient domestic growth, ample liquidity, and contained inflation that have reduced the urgency for immediate easing or tightening. Upcoming catalysts include the late-May LPR announcement and any fresh data on export performance or external shocks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sharper downside surprises in April industrial output or escalating Middle East tensions that prompt targeted liquidity injections before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Khối lượng
$5,268Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to no change in the People’s Bank of China’s 7-day reverse repo rate this month, reflecting the central bank’s April decision to hold the one-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% for the eleventh consecutive month. This positioning aligns with the PBOC’s first-quarter 2026 monetary policy report, which reaffirmed a moderately loose stance while citing resilient domestic growth, ample liquidity, and contained inflation that have reduced the urgency for immediate easing or tightening. Upcoming catalysts include the late-May LPR announcement and any fresh data on export performance or external shocks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sharper downside surprises in April industrial output or escalating Middle East tensions that prompt targeted liquidity injections before month-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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