Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 70-75% turnout at 98% implied probability, anchored by official National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) data reporting 73.79% participation—20.16 million votes from 27.3 million registered voters—in the April 12-13 first-round presidential election. This figure emerged after prolonged vote counting reached 99.99% on May 14 amid logistical delays that extended voting to a second day, fraud allegations by third-place finisher Rafael López Aliaga, and National Jury of Elections (JNE) rejection of annulment requests on April 24, confirming the June 7 runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez. High fragmentation among 35 candidates, ongoing political instability, and voter apathy—per IEP surveys, 26% cited work and 5% distrust—drove lower-than-historical turnout from below Peru's 81% average. With certification near-complete, only a late audit or legal reversal could shift the bin, though barriers remain high given observer validations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật70-75% 98.2%
80-85% <1%
75-80% <1%
< 70% <1%
$259,221 KL.
$259,221 KL.
Apr 12, 2026
< 70%
<1%
70-75%
98%
75-80%
<1%
80-85%
1%
> 85%
<1%
70-75% 98.2%
80-85% <1%
75-80% <1%
< 70% <1%
$259,221 KL.
$259,221 KL.
Apr 12, 2026
< 70%
$33,415 KL.
<1%
70-75%
$70,771 KL.
98%
75-80%
$48,838 KL.
<1%
80-85%
$95,650 KL.
1%
> 85%
$10,548 KL.
<1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 70-75% turnout at 98% implied probability, anchored by official National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) data reporting 73.79% participation—20.16 million votes from 27.3 million registered voters—in the April 12-13 first-round presidential election. This figure emerged after prolonged vote counting reached 99.99% on May 14 amid logistical delays that extended voting to a second day, fraud allegations by third-place finisher Rafael López Aliaga, and National Jury of Elections (JNE) rejection of annulment requests on April 24, confirming the June 7 runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez. High fragmentation among 35 candidates, ongoing political instability, and voter apathy—per IEP surveys, 26% cited work and 5% distrust—drove lower-than-historical turnout from below Peru's 81% average. With certification near-complete, only a late audit or legal reversal could shift the bin, though barriers remain high given observer validations.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Thị trường mở: Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
Khối lượng
$259,221Ngày kết thúc
Apr 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 70-75% turnout at 98% implied probability, anchored by official National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) data reporting 73.79% participation—20.16 million votes from 27.3 million registered voters—in the April 12-13 first-round presidential election. This figure emerged after prolonged vote counting reached 99.99% on May 14 amid logistical delays that extended voting to a second day, fraud allegations by third-place finisher Rafael López Aliaga, and National Jury of Elections (JNE) rejection of annulment requests on April 24, confirming the June 7 runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez. High fragmentation among 35 candidates, ongoing political instability, and voter apathy—per IEP surveys, 26% cited work and 5% distrust—drove lower-than-historical turnout from below Peru's 81% average. With certification near-complete, only a late audit or legal reversal could shift the bin, though barriers remain high given observer validations.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Khối lượng
$259,221Ngày kết thúc
Apr 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 70-75% turnout at 98% implied probability, anchored by official National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) data reporting 73.79% participation—20.16 million votes from 27.3 million registered voters—in the April 12-13 first-round presidential election. This figure emerged after prolonged vote counting reached 99.99% on May 14 amid logistical delays that extended voting to a second day, fraud allegations by third-place finisher Rafael López Aliaga, and National Jury of Elections (JNE) rejection of annulment requests on April 24, confirming the June 7 runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez. High fragmentation among 35 candidates, ongoing political instability, and voter apathy—per IEP surveys, 26% cited work and 5% distrust—drove lower-than-historical turnout from below Peru's 81% average. With certification near-complete, only a late audit or legal reversal could shift the bin, though barriers remain high given observer validations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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