U.S. President Donald Trump announced on May 8 a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine running May 9–11 to mark Russia’s Victory Day, accompanied by a planned 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. Both sides have since accused each other of violations during the pause, with reports of continued limited strikes and drone activity along the frontline. Earlier rounds of trilateral talks in Geneva in February addressed territorial issues for the first time, yet core disputes over security guarantees and borders remain unresolved. Russian officials have described a durable settlement as still distant, while Ukrainian positions continue to emphasize full withdrawal and international security arrangements. These short-term diplomatic and humanitarian steps have not yet produced sustained de-escalation or formal negotiations that would materially raise the prospects of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$659,296 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
May 31
3%
June 30
12%
October 31
38%
December 31
51%
$659,296 KL.
May 31
$282,655 KL.
3%
June 30
$197,643 KL.
12%
October 31
$57,065 KL.
38%
December 31
$122,331 KL.
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. President Donald Trump announced on May 8 a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine running May 9–11 to mark Russia’s Victory Day, accompanied by a planned 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. Both sides have since accused each other of violations during the pause, with reports of continued limited strikes and drone activity along the frontline. Earlier rounds of trilateral talks in Geneva in February addressed territorial issues for the first time, yet core disputes over security guarantees and borders remain unresolved. Russian officials have described a durable settlement as still distant, while Ukrainian positions continue to emphasize full withdrawal and international security arrangements. These short-term diplomatic and humanitarian steps have not yet produced sustained de-escalation or formal negotiations that would materially raise the prospects of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$659,296Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. President Donald Trump announced on May 8 a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine running May 9–11 to mark Russia’s Victory Day, accompanied by a planned 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. Both sides have since accused each other of violations during the pause, with reports of continued limited strikes and drone activity along the frontline. Earlier rounds of trilateral talks in Geneva in February addressed territorial issues for the first time, yet core disputes over security guarantees and borders remain unresolved. Russian officials have described a durable settlement as still distant, while Ukrainian positions continue to emphasize full withdrawal and international security arrangements. These short-term diplomatic and humanitarian steps have not yet produced sustained de-escalation or formal negotiations that would materially raise the prospects of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$659,296Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. President Donald Trump announced on May 8 a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine running May 9–11 to mark Russia’s Victory Day, accompanied by a planned 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. Both sides have since accused each other of violations during the pause, with reports of continued limited strikes and drone activity along the frontline. Earlier rounds of trilateral talks in Geneva in February addressed territorial issues for the first time, yet core disputes over security guarantees and borders remain unresolved. Russian officials have described a durable settlement as still distant, while Ukrainian positions continue to emphasize full withdrawal and international security arrangements. These short-term diplomatic and humanitarian steps have not yet produced sustained de-escalation or formal negotiations that would materially raise the prospects of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp