Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced only a three-day ceasefire in early May 2026 with a limited prisoner exchange, while both sides traded accusations of violations and the Kremlin stated that a full settlement remains a very long way off due to unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and military withdrawals. Russian officials have emphasized that negotiations are paused without specifics on timelines or concessions, and Ukrainian positions continue to stress credible enforcement mechanisms before any comprehensive agreement. With core differences unchanged since earlier Geneva rounds and no scheduled breakthroughs before the June 30 deadline, trader pricing reflects the low likelihood of a signed peace deal materializing in the narrow remaining window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$439,184 KL.
$439,184 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$439,184 KL.
$439,184 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced only a three-day ceasefire in early May 2026 with a limited prisoner exchange, while both sides traded accusations of violations and the Kremlin stated that a full settlement remains a very long way off due to unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and military withdrawals. Russian officials have emphasized that negotiations are paused without specifics on timelines or concessions, and Ukrainian positions continue to stress credible enforcement mechanisms before any comprehensive agreement. With core differences unchanged since earlier Geneva rounds and no scheduled breakthroughs before the June 30 deadline, trader pricing reflects the low likelihood of a signed peace deal materializing in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Khối lượng
$439,184Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced only a three-day ceasefire in early May 2026 with a limited prisoner exchange, while both sides traded accusations of violations and the Kremlin stated that a full settlement remains a very long way off due to unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and military withdrawals. Russian officials have emphasized that negotiations are paused without specifics on timelines or concessions, and Ukrainian positions continue to stress credible enforcement mechanisms before any comprehensive agreement. With core differences unchanged since earlier Geneva rounds and no scheduled breakthroughs before the June 30 deadline, trader pricing reflects the low likelihood of a signed peace deal materializing in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$439,184Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced only a three-day ceasefire in early May 2026 with a limited prisoner exchange, while both sides traded accusations of violations and the Kremlin stated that a full settlement remains a very long way off due to unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and military withdrawals. Russian officials have emphasized that negotiations are paused without specifics on timelines or concessions, and Ukrainian positions continue to stress credible enforcement mechanisms before any comprehensive agreement. With core differences unchanged since earlier Geneva rounds and no scheduled breakthroughs before the June 30 deadline, trader pricing reflects the low likelihood of a signed peace deal materializing in the narrow remaining window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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