Ongoing martial law in Ukraine, extended by parliament through August 2026, bars presidential elections under constitutional rules, keeping Volodymyr Zelenskyy in office as the incumbent with powers continuing until a successor is inaugurated. Recent parliamentary renewals of martial law and Zelenskyy’s public statements tying any vote to a prior ceasefire or security guarantees have reinforced trader views that removal by June 30 remains improbable absent sudden de-escalation. Historical precedent of term extensions during wartime and the absence of viable impeachment or resignation pathways further support the 96.7 percent implied probability on “No.” Late developments such as an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or health event could still shift outcomes, though both appear remote within the narrow resolution window.