**SpaceX has made steady progress on Starship test flights through mid-2026, including successful orbital reaches and booster/ship recovery attempts, but full reusability—defined as repeated tower catches of both Super Heavy and the upper stage followed by rapid reflights with minimal refurbishment—remains unproven.** Recent flights, such as IFT-12 and IFT-13, demonstrated improved performance and heat-shield data yet highlighted persistent challenges with engine relights, thermal protection durability during reentry, and controlled returns without water exposure or major damage. Elon Musk has signaled imminent ship-catch attempts and possible first reflights by late 2026 or early 2027, aligning with Version 3 hardware goals, but these milestones still require multiple consecutive successes under operational conditions to meet the “fully reusable” threshold. Trader consensus favoring “No” at 58.5% reflects SpaceX’s pattern of timeline slippage, the engineering complexity of achieving airplane-like turnaround for a 100+ ton-class vehicle, and the limited flight rate achieved so far. Key near-term catalysts include the next tower-catch test and post-flight analysis of heat-shield performance; any delays or anomalies could reinforce the current market-implied odds.