Recent polling consistently places the Social Democrats first, Sweden Democrats second, and Moderate Party third ahead of the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, with the Moderates holding roughly 17% support against the Sweden Democrats' near-20% share. This positioning reflects sustained voter preferences on immigration, crime, and economic management that have kept the right-leaning bloc divided while the centre-left opposition maintains its lead. The current government configuration, with the Moderates heading a minority administration backed by the Sweden Democrats and smaller allies, has not produced late swings sufficient to reorder the top three. Traders therefore assign the Moderate Party an 82.5% implied probability of finishing third, with the Sweden Democrats at 16% and all other parties below 3%, aligning closely with the latest survey averages.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Moderate Party (M) 83%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 16%
Green Party (MP) 2.6%
Centre Party (C) 1.4%
$24,081 KL.
$24,081 KL.
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
<1%
Sweden Democrats (SD)
16%
Moderate Party (M)
83%
Centre Party (C)
1%
Left Party (V)
<1%
Christian Democrats (KD)
<1%
Green Party (MP)
3%
Liberals (L)
<1%
Citizens' Coalition (MED)
<1%
Moderate Party (M) 83%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 16%
Green Party (MP) 2.6%
Centre Party (C) 1.4%
$24,081 KL.
$24,081 KL.
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
<1%
Sweden Democrats (SD)
16%
Moderate Party (M)
83%
Centre Party (C)
1%
Left Party (V)
<1%
Christian Democrats (KD)
<1%
Green Party (MP)
3%
Liberals (L)
<1%
Citizens' Coalition (MED)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Thị trường mở: May 19, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling consistently places the Social Democrats first, Sweden Democrats second, and Moderate Party third ahead of the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, with the Moderates holding roughly 17% support against the Sweden Democrats' near-20% share. This positioning reflects sustained voter preferences on immigration, crime, and economic management that have kept the right-leaning bloc divided while the centre-left opposition maintains its lead. The current government configuration, with the Moderates heading a minority administration backed by the Sweden Democrats and smaller allies, has not produced late swings sufficient to reorder the top three. Traders therefore assign the Moderate Party an 82.5% implied probability of finishing third, with the Sweden Democrats at 16% and all other parties below 3%, aligning closely with the latest survey averages.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Liệu Đảng Dân chủ Xã hội Thụy Điển (S) có giành được nhiều ghế nhất trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Thụy Điển năm 2026 không?
Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
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