Midway through 2026, traders' 65.5% consensus on "No" stems from the absence of any parliamentary vote, official announcement, or draft submission for a constitutional referendum, as required for market resolution by year-end. Turkey's Justice Minister recently called for a new constitution amid security threats, but President Erdogan's AKP-MHP alliance holds only about 318 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, falling short of the 360 needed to bypass presidential approval and send amendments directly to referendum. Erdogan denied term-extension motives in 2025 statements, redirecting focus to the 2028 presidential election amid economic challenges and opposition calls for early polls. No momentum has built despite past coalition pushes, with procedural hurdles and polarization dimming prospects for action this year.