Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with minimal opposition, reinforcing expectations for a strong hold in the solidly Democratic TX-20 district centered in San Antonio. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Solid Democratic based on its consistent voting history, demographic composition favoring the party, and the absence of competitive Republican challengers or notable primary activity on that side. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with these structural advantages and low early fundraising signals from potential opponents. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unusually strong Republican candidate emerging with significant outside spending, a major national political realignment before November, or unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal or legal issues affecting the incumbent.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTX-20 House Election Winner
TX-20 House Election Winner
$24,590 KL.
$24,590 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$24,590 KL.
$24,590 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,059 KL.
94%
Republican Party
$12,531 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with minimal opposition, reinforcing expectations for a strong hold in the solidly Democratic TX-20 district centered in San Antonio. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Solid Democratic based on its consistent voting history, demographic composition favoring the party, and the absence of competitive Republican challengers or notable primary activity on that side. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with these structural advantages and low early fundraising signals from potential opponents. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unusually strong Republican candidate emerging with significant outside spending, a major national political realignment before November, or unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal or legal issues affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$24,590Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with minimal opposition, reinforcing expectations for a strong hold in the solidly Democratic TX-20 district centered in San Antonio. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Solid Democratic based on its consistent voting history, demographic composition favoring the party, and the absence of competitive Republican challengers or notable primary activity on that side. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with these structural advantages and low early fundraising signals from potential opponents. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unusually strong Republican candidate emerging with significant outside spending, a major national political realignment before November, or unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal or legal issues affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$24,590Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with minimal opposition, reinforcing expectations for a strong hold in the solidly Democratic TX-20 district centered in San Antonio. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Solid Democratic based on its consistent voting history, demographic composition favoring the party, and the absence of competitive Republican challengers or notable primary activity on that side. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with these structural advantages and low early fundraising signals from potential opponents. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unusually strong Republican candidate emerging with significant outside spending, a major national political realignment before November, or unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal or legal issues affecting the incumbent.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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