Traders assign a 97% probability that the United States will avoid default on its debt by 2027, reflecting entrenched institutional safeguards and repeated congressional action on the debt ceiling. Lawmakers have historically raised borrowing limits through bipartisan legislation or continuing resolutions to prevent market disruptions, higher interest costs, and broader economic fallout. With the next statutory deadline likely arriving after the 2026 midterms, both parties retain strong incentives to negotiate increases rather than risk a breach. While extreme partisan standoffs or unforeseen fiscal shocks could theoretically shift this trajectory, the consistent record of averting default and the severe consequences of failure underpin the current market consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% khả năng
$16,303 KL.
$16,303 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
3% khả năng
$16,303 KL.
$16,303 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% probability that the United States will avoid default on its debt by 2027, reflecting entrenched institutional safeguards and repeated congressional action on the debt ceiling. Lawmakers have historically raised borrowing limits through bipartisan legislation or continuing resolutions to prevent market disruptions, higher interest costs, and broader economic fallout. With the next statutory deadline likely arriving after the 2026 midterms, both parties retain strong incentives to negotiate increases rather than risk a breach. While extreme partisan standoffs or unforeseen fiscal shocks could theoretically shift this trajectory, the consistent record of averting default and the severe consequences of failure underpin the current market consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$16,303Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% probability that the United States will avoid default on its debt by 2027, reflecting entrenched institutional safeguards and repeated congressional action on the debt ceiling. Lawmakers have historically raised borrowing limits through bipartisan legislation or continuing resolutions to prevent market disruptions, higher interest costs, and broader economic fallout. With the next statutory deadline likely arriving after the 2026 midterms, both parties retain strong incentives to negotiate increases rather than risk a breach. While extreme partisan standoffs or unforeseen fiscal shocks could theoretically shift this trajectory, the consistent record of averting default and the severe consequences of failure underpin the current market consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Khối lượng
$16,303Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97% probability that the United States will avoid default on its debt by 2027, reflecting entrenched institutional safeguards and repeated congressional action on the debt ceiling. Lawmakers have historically raised borrowing limits through bipartisan legislation or continuing resolutions to prevent market disruptions, higher interest costs, and broader economic fallout. With the next statutory deadline likely arriving after the 2026 midterms, both parties retain strong incentives to negotiate increases rather than risk a breach. While extreme partisan standoffs or unforeseen fiscal shocks could theoretically shift this trajectory, the consistent record of averting default and the severe consequences of failure underpin the current market consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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