The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation legislation has set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with independent projections indicating the Treasury will reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, extending the effective timeline past the end of 2027. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent “No” probability draws from this schedule together with the established record of more than 100 congressional actions since World War II that have raised or suspended the limit without permitting a payment default on Treasury obligations. Institutional incentives to protect U.S. credit standing and avoid severe economic disruption reinforce the positioning. Residual risks that could still alter the outcome include an unusually protracted partisan impasse that exhausts cash reserves and measures before year-end 2027 or an unforeseen fiscal shock that sharply accelerates the X-date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$15,594 KL.
$15,594 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$15,594 KL.
$15,594 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation legislation has set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with independent projections indicating the Treasury will reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, extending the effective timeline past the end of 2027. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent “No” probability draws from this schedule together with the established record of more than 100 congressional actions since World War II that have raised or suspended the limit without permitting a payment default on Treasury obligations. Institutional incentives to protect U.S. credit standing and avoid severe economic disruption reinforce the positioning. Residual risks that could still alter the outcome include an unusually protracted partisan impasse that exhausts cash reserves and measures before year-end 2027 or an unforeseen fiscal shock that sharply accelerates the X-date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$15,594Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation legislation has set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with independent projections indicating the Treasury will reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, extending the effective timeline past the end of 2027. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent “No” probability draws from this schedule together with the established record of more than 100 congressional actions since World War II that have raised or suspended the limit without permitting a payment default on Treasury obligations. Institutional incentives to protect U.S. credit standing and avoid severe economic disruption reinforce the positioning. Residual risks that could still alter the outcome include an unusually protracted partisan impasse that exhausts cash reserves and measures before year-end 2027 or an unforeseen fiscal shock that sharply accelerates the X-date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Khối lượng
$15,594Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation legislation has set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with independent projections indicating the Treasury will reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, extending the effective timeline past the end of 2027. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent “No” probability draws from this schedule together with the established record of more than 100 congressional actions since World War II that have raised or suspended the limit without permitting a payment default on Treasury obligations. Institutional incentives to protect U.S. credit standing and avoid severe economic disruption reinforce the positioning. Residual risks that could still alter the outcome include an unusually protracted partisan impasse that exhausts cash reserves and measures before year-end 2027 or an unforeseen fiscal shock that sharply accelerates the X-date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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