Traders assign a 95.5% probability that no U.S. military draft will be authorized in 2026 because reinstating conscription requires explicit congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction, a step that has not occurred and faces steep procedural and political barriers. The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only mandates automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 beginning December 2026 as a contingency measure, without authorizing any draft or forced service. The all-volunteer force remains in place, with the Selective Service System confirming no current draft authority exists. A major escalation in overseas conflicts could prompt Congress to consider authorization, but no such legislative movement is underway.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật5% khả năng
$518,908 KL.
$518,908 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
5% khả năng
$518,908 KL.
$518,908 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% probability that no U.S. military draft will be authorized in 2026 because reinstating conscription requires explicit congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction, a step that has not occurred and faces steep procedural and political barriers. The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only mandates automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 beginning December 2026 as a contingency measure, without authorizing any draft or forced service. The all-volunteer force remains in place, with the Selective Service System confirming no current draft authority exists. A major escalation in overseas conflicts could prompt Congress to consider authorization, but no such legislative movement is underway.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Khối lượng
$518,908Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% probability that no U.S. military draft will be authorized in 2026 because reinstating conscription requires explicit congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction, a step that has not occurred and faces steep procedural and political barriers. The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only mandates automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 beginning December 2026 as a contingency measure, without authorizing any draft or forced service. The all-volunteer force remains in place, with the Selective Service System confirming no current draft authority exists. A major escalation in overseas conflicts could prompt Congress to consider authorization, but no such legislative movement is underway.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$518,908Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.5% probability that no U.S. military draft will be authorized in 2026 because reinstating conscription requires explicit congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction, a step that has not occurred and faces steep procedural and political barriers. The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only mandates automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 beginning December 2026 as a contingency measure, without authorizing any draft or forced service. The all-volunteer force remains in place, with the Selective Service System confirming no current draft authority exists. A major escalation in overseas conflicts could prompt Congress to consider authorization, but no such legislative movement is underway.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp