Trader consensus around a 95.5% probability of no US military draft authorization in 2026 reflects the continued operation of an all-volunteer force and the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to amend the Military Selective Service Act. Automatic Selective Service registration updates under the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, scheduled for December implementation, streamline existing contingency processes without authorizing inductions or altering the requirement for separate congressional approval in a national emergency. Official statements from the Selective Service System confirm no current draft authority exists, and recruitment shortfalls have not reached thresholds that have historically prompted conscription. Late developments capable of shifting this outlook remain limited to unforeseen escalations in major conflicts that exceed volunteer capacity before year-end.