Trader consensus prices a US military draft authorization in 2026 at just 7.5% likelihood, driven by the absence of any congressional bills, committee hearings, or executive proposals to reactivate conscription since the all-volunteer force policy solidified post-1973. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, mandated automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December 2026 to streamline compliance, but officials including the Selective Service System and Department of Defense have clarified this administrative change does not enable drafting without separate legislation and a presidential national emergency declaration. Recent April announcements reinforced no draft plans amid stable recruitment via incentives, despite global tensions, with no scheduled votes or policy shifts altering this stance through mid-May.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$250,122 KL.
$250,122 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$250,122 KL.
$250,122 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a US military draft authorization in 2026 at just 7.5% likelihood, driven by the absence of any congressional bills, committee hearings, or executive proposals to reactivate conscription since the all-volunteer force policy solidified post-1973. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, mandated automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December 2026 to streamline compliance, but officials including the Selective Service System and Department of Defense have clarified this administrative change does not enable drafting without separate legislation and a presidential national emergency declaration. Recent April announcements reinforced no draft plans amid stable recruitment via incentives, despite global tensions, with no scheduled votes or policy shifts altering this stance through mid-May.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Khối lượng
$250,122Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a US military draft authorization in 2026 at just 7.5% likelihood, driven by the absence of any congressional bills, committee hearings, or executive proposals to reactivate conscription since the all-volunteer force policy solidified post-1973. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, mandated automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December 2026 to streamline compliance, but officials including the Selective Service System and Department of Defense have clarified this administrative change does not enable drafting without separate legislation and a presidential national emergency declaration. Recent April announcements reinforced no draft plans amid stable recruitment via incentives, despite global tensions, with no scheduled votes or policy shifts altering this stance through mid-May.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$250,122Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a US military draft authorization in 2026 at just 7.5% likelihood, driven by the absence of any congressional bills, committee hearings, or executive proposals to reactivate conscription since the all-volunteer force policy solidified post-1973. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, mandated automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December 2026 to streamline compliance, but officials including the Selective Service System and Department of Defense have clarified this administrative change does not enable drafting without separate legislation and a presidential national emergency declaration. Recent April announcements reinforced no draft plans amid stable recruitment via incentives, despite global tensions, with no scheduled votes or policy shifts altering this stance through mid-May.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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