The Washington 4th district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates and a PVI around R+10, underpins the 90.5% trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Retiring incumbent Dan Newhouse’s departure created an open seat, but the August 4 primary advanced Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who secured Trump’s endorsement and roughly 35% of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, over Democrat John Duresky. Forecasters rate the November general as Safe or Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s voting history. The Democratic nominee, a retired Air Force veteran, benefits from unified party support but confronts structural barriers in central Washington counties. Only an unforeseen late-cycle development, such as a major scandal or sharp turnout shift, would realistically narrow the gap.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWA-04 House Election Winner
WA-04 House Election Winner
$50,729 KL.
$50,729 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
8%
$50,729 KL.
$50,729 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$28,019 KL.
91%
Democratic Party
$22,711 KL.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Washington 4th district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates and a PVI around R+10, underpins the 90.5% trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Retiring incumbent Dan Newhouse’s departure created an open seat, but the August 4 primary advanced Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who secured Trump’s endorsement and roughly 35% of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, over Democrat John Duresky. Forecasters rate the November general as Safe or Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s voting history. The Democratic nominee, a retired Air Force veteran, benefits from unified party support but confronts structural barriers in central Washington counties. Only an unforeseen late-cycle development, such as a major scandal or sharp turnout shift, would realistically narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$50,729Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Washington 4th district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates and a PVI around R+10, underpins the 90.5% trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Retiring incumbent Dan Newhouse’s departure created an open seat, but the August 4 primary advanced Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who secured Trump’s endorsement and roughly 35% of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, over Democrat John Duresky. Forecasters rate the November general as Safe or Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s voting history. The Democratic nominee, a retired Air Force veteran, benefits from unified party support but confronts structural barriers in central Washington counties. Only an unforeseen late-cycle development, such as a major scandal or sharp turnout shift, would realistically narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$50,729Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Washington 4th district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates and a PVI around R+10, underpins the 90.5% trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Retiring incumbent Dan Newhouse’s departure created an open seat, but the August 4 primary advanced Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who secured Trump’s endorsement and roughly 35% of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, over Democrat John Duresky. Forecasters rate the November general as Safe or Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s voting history. The Democratic nominee, a retired Air Force veteran, benefits from unified party support but confronts structural barriers in central Washington counties. Only an unforeseen late-cycle development, such as a major scandal or sharp turnout shift, would realistically narrow the gap.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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