Recent releases of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series have solidified its position at the top of most intelligence and agentic benchmarks, driving traders to assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability for second place. Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or tie on coding-specific evaluations such as SWE-bench and long-context reasoning tasks, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in developer adoption metrics while remaining competitive on multimodal capabilities. No major model updates from any lab have emerged in the past week, leaving the current leaderboard stability intact through the end of June window. Traders are watching for any surprise capability jumps or benchmark shifts that could alter the tight cluster among the top four frontier labs.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 72%
Google 15%
OpenAI 9.4%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 KL.
$400,986 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
72%
15%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 72%
Google 15%
OpenAI 9.4%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 KL.
$400,986 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$14,717 KL.
72%
$5,648 KL.
15%
OpenAI
$34,207 KL.
9%
xAI
$14,892 KL.
3%
DeepSeek
$249,054 KL.
1%
Microsoft
$5,685 KL.
1%
Meta
$4,186 KL.
1%
Alibaba
$6,636 KL.
1%
Moonshot
$4,922 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,323 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$34,087 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$4,429 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$5,557 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$2,909 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$4,734 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series have solidified its position at the top of most intelligence and agentic benchmarks, driving traders to assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability for second place. Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or tie on coding-specific evaluations such as SWE-bench and long-context reasoning tasks, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in developer adoption metrics while remaining competitive on multimodal capabilities. No major model updates from any lab have emerged in the past week, leaving the current leaderboard stability intact through the end of June window. Traders are watching for any surprise capability jumps or benchmark shifts that could alter the tight cluster among the top four frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Khối lượng
$400,986Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series have solidified its position at the top of most intelligence and agentic benchmarks, driving traders to assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability for second place. Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or tie on coding-specific evaluations such as SWE-bench and long-context reasoning tasks, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in developer adoption metrics while remaining competitive on multimodal capabilities. No major model updates from any lab have emerged in the past week, leaving the current leaderboard stability intact through the end of June window. Traders are watching for any surprise capability jumps or benchmark shifts that could alter the tight cluster among the top four frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$400,986Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent releases of OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series have solidified its position at the top of most intelligence and agentic benchmarks, driving traders to assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability for second place. Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants continue to lead or tie on coding-specific evaluations such as SWE-bench and long-context reasoning tasks, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in developer adoption metrics while remaining competitive on multimodal capabilities. No major model updates from any lab have emerged in the past week, leaving the current leaderboard stability intact through the end of June window. Traders are watching for any surprise capability jumps or benchmark shifts that could alter the tight cluster among the top four frontier labs.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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