Anthropic holds a commanding 90% implied probability in the market for the best AI model by end of May, driven by consistent outperformance of its latest Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants across key benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and natural language generation. Traders appear to favor Anthropic’s emphasis on reliable, low-hallucination outputs and strong results on developer-focused evaluations, which have solidified its position relative to competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 family trails at 7.5% thanks to multimodal strengths, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.5 release has not shifted sentiment enough to close the gap. With resolution just weeks away and no major new model launches expected before month-end, current trader positioning reflects sustained benchmark leadership and practical adoption advantages for frontier large language models.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 91%
Google 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
ByteDance <1%
$9,001,935 KL.
$9,001,935 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
91%
8%
OpenAI
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
Google 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
ByteDance <1%
$9,001,935 KL.
$9,001,935 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$675,352 KL.
91%
$621,328 KL.
8%
OpenAI
$766,811 KL.
1%
ByteDance
$558,510 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$527,459 KL.
<1%
Meta
$588,837 KL.
<1%
xAI
$671,949 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$518,378 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$562,995 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$478,923 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$470,637 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$406,756 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$1,423,820 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$311,909 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$418,351 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 90% implied probability in the market for the best AI model by end of May, driven by consistent outperformance of its latest Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants across key benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and natural language generation. Traders appear to favor Anthropic’s emphasis on reliable, low-hallucination outputs and strong results on developer-focused evaluations, which have solidified its position relative to competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 family trails at 7.5% thanks to multimodal strengths, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.5 release has not shifted sentiment enough to close the gap. With resolution just weeks away and no major new model launches expected before month-end, current trader positioning reflects sustained benchmark leadership and practical adoption advantages for frontier large language models.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$9,001,935Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 90% implied probability in the market for the best AI model by end of May, driven by consistent outperformance of its latest Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants across key benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and natural language generation. Traders appear to favor Anthropic’s emphasis on reliable, low-hallucination outputs and strong results on developer-focused evaluations, which have solidified its position relative to competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 family trails at 7.5% thanks to multimodal strengths, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.5 release has not shifted sentiment enough to close the gap. With resolution just weeks away and no major new model launches expected before month-end, current trader positioning reflects sustained benchmark leadership and practical adoption advantages for frontier large language models.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$9,001,935Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a commanding 90% implied probability in the market for the best AI model by end of May, driven by consistent outperformance of its latest Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants across key benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and natural language generation. Traders appear to favor Anthropic’s emphasis on reliable, low-hallucination outputs and strong results on developer-focused evaluations, which have solidified its position relative to competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 family trails at 7.5% thanks to multimodal strengths, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.5 release has not shifted sentiment enough to close the gap. With resolution just weeks away and no major new model launches expected before month-end, current trader positioning reflects sustained benchmark leadership and practical adoption advantages for frontier large language models.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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