Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 73.5% implied probability for holding the third-best large language model by the end of May, reflecting its recent Claude iterations that have demonstrated strong gains in reasoning benchmarks and multimodal capabilities relative to peers. Google sits at 27.5% on the strength of Gemini updates and enterprise integrations, yet trails in several independent evaluations of coding and agentic tasks. OpenAI and the remaining contenders register below 2% each, as their latest releases have not produced decisive shifts in competitive positioning or third-party assessments within the past month. Key catalysts ahead include potential model drops at developer conferences and any new benchmark releases that could alter the current market-implied consensus before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 65%
Google 28%
OpenAI 1.4%
xAI <1%
$91,783 KL.
$91,783 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
69%
28%
OpenAI
1%
xAI
1%
Baidu
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 65%
Google 28%
OpenAI 1.4%
xAI <1%
$91,783 KL.
$91,783 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$13,943 KL.
69%
$10,754 KL.
28%
OpenAI
$6,995 KL.
1%
xAI
$7,524 KL.
1%
Baidu
$5,797 KL.
<1%
Meta
$5,647 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,407 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$7,381 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$5,549 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,744 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$2,590 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$6,814 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$3,666 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$2,361 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$4,613 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 73.5% implied probability for holding the third-best large language model by the end of May, reflecting its recent Claude iterations that have demonstrated strong gains in reasoning benchmarks and multimodal capabilities relative to peers. Google sits at 27.5% on the strength of Gemini updates and enterprise integrations, yet trails in several independent evaluations of coding and agentic tasks. OpenAI and the remaining contenders register below 2% each, as their latest releases have not produced decisive shifts in competitive positioning or third-party assessments within the past month. Key catalysts ahead include potential model drops at developer conferences and any new benchmark releases that could alter the current market-implied consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$91,783Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 73.5% implied probability for holding the third-best large language model by the end of May, reflecting its recent Claude iterations that have demonstrated strong gains in reasoning benchmarks and multimodal capabilities relative to peers. Google sits at 27.5% on the strength of Gemini updates and enterprise integrations, yet trails in several independent evaluations of coding and agentic tasks. OpenAI and the remaining contenders register below 2% each, as their latest releases have not produced decisive shifts in competitive positioning or third-party assessments within the past month. Key catalysts ahead include potential model drops at developer conferences and any new benchmark releases that could alter the current market-implied consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$91,783Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 73.5% implied probability for holding the third-best large language model by the end of May, reflecting its recent Claude iterations that have demonstrated strong gains in reasoning benchmarks and multimodal capabilities relative to peers. Google sits at 27.5% on the strength of Gemini updates and enterprise integrations, yet trails in several independent evaluations of coding and agentic tasks. OpenAI and the remaining contenders register below 2% each, as their latest releases have not produced decisive shifts in competitive positioning or third-party assessments within the past month. Key catalysts ahead include potential model drops at developer conferences and any new benchmark releases that could alter the current market-implied consensus before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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