India’s role as BRICS chair and summit host in 2026 anchors trader expectations that no full member will exit, as the grouping maintains institutional continuity and expansion momentum despite internal differences. Recent foreign ministers’ meetings have produced chair statements on shared priorities like multilateralism, even when full joint communiqués proved elusive over regional tensions. No member state has issued a withdrawal notice or faced domestic policy reversals comparable to Argentina’s earlier decision to forgo membership. Claims of mass departures tied to external tariff pressures lack verification and have been countered by BRICS officials emphasizing ongoing unity. With the resolution window extending through December 2026, the absence of concrete exit signals sustains the 85% implied probability for no departures.