Israel’s government has advanced de facto control over parts of the West Bank through accelerated settlement construction, land registration processes, state funding for infrastructure, and administrative transfers that erode Oslo-era divisions, including recent E1 tenders scheduled to open before late-October parliamentary elections. These steps, driven by coalition partners favoring sovereignty, have created irreversible facts on the ground without triggering a formal legislative declaration or extension of Israeli civil law over significant territory. International pressure, particularly from the United States, and the absence of a binding Knesset vote on annexation have kept formal sovereignty off the immediate agenda. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 94.5% implied probability because scheduled political timelines and diplomatic constraints make a declared annexation by the end of 2026 improbable.