Strong U.S.-Colombia security cooperation under President Abelardo de la Espriella’s administration, inaugurated in August 2026, anchors trader expectations against any invasion scenario. The countries have formalized joint counternarcotics operations through the Shield of the Americas coalition, including U.S. Southern Command visits, intelligence sharing, potential aerial eradication support, and a proposed $1 billion U.S. security package. These steps build on decades of partnership focused on transnational criminal organizations rather than interstate conflict. Diplomatic alignment on issues such as border security with Ecuador and Pacific trafficking routes further reinforces the cooperative framework. While extreme developments—such as a sudden reversal in Colombian leadership, major escalation involving external actors, or unforeseen hemispheric crisis—could theoretically shift calculations, current bilateral military and economic ties make large-scale U.S. military action against Colombia highly improbable within the 2026 timeframe.