The January 2026 U.S. airstrikes and special operations raid that captured Nicolás Maduro marked a sharp escalation in the Trump administration’s pressure campaign against Venezuela, framed around counter-narcotics and regime transition. Subsequent developments, including the rapid withdrawal of U.S. forces, Delcy Rodríguez’s installation as interim president, and the March reopening of the U.S. embassy in Caracas, have shifted focus toward diplomatic normalization and economic cooperation on oil and minerals. These steps, combined with Venezuela’s rejection of statehood proposals in May, have lowered expectations for any sustained ground offensive or territorial control operation through the end of 2026. Key variables that could still influence outcomes include the pace of political reconciliation, oil sector access agreements, and any renewed tensions over migration or sanctions enforcement.