The January 2026 U.S. special operations raid that captured Nicolás Maduro and facilitated Delcy Rodríguez’s interim presidency has shaped current trader assessments of any further invasion risk. Coordinated strikes against suspected drug vessels and one land target occurred earlier, but no large-scale ground force deployment or occupation followed. Diplomatic ties resumed in March, the U.S. embassy reopened, and an oil-sector agreement granting Washington preferential access advanced under Rodríguez. Senate efforts to require congressional authorization for additional military action passed narrowly but lacked veto-proof support. Ongoing counter-narcotics coordination and scheduled transition milestones through late 2026 remain the primary variables traders monitor for shifts in implied probabilities.