The January 2026 U.S. operation against Venezuela involved targeted airstrikes on military sites and a raid that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife for narco-terrorism charges, followed by a swift withdrawal of American forces. This limited intervention, framed as law enforcement support for a political transition, has left Venezuela under interim leadership with ongoing U.S. engagement focused on oil sector stabilization rather than sustained ground presence. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether escalating regional instability, oil asset disputes, or diplomatic breakdowns could prompt a larger-scale military return before the resolution date, weighed against historical reluctance for prolonged Latin American commitments and current administration emphasis on phased handovers. Key upcoming factors include transition timeline negotiations and any new sanctions or diplomatic moves that could alter escalation risks.