The stringent procedural barriers of the constitutional amendment process drive the 96.5% implied probability against repeal occurring in 2026. Any change to the Twenty-Second Amendment would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states, thresholds that have not been approached despite occasional resolutions and public comments from President Trump and allies. Recent statements from Trump acknowledging the law's strength, combined with stalled proposals such as those introduced in early 2025, have reinforced trader consensus on the absence of viable legislative momentum before year-end. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unanticipated congressional supermajority vote or a successful legal challenge reinterpreting eligibility, though neither has materialized in credible form.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật3% khả năng
$13,091 KL.
$13,091 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
3% khả năng
$13,091 KL.
$13,091 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The stringent procedural barriers of the constitutional amendment process drive the 96.5% implied probability against repeal occurring in 2026. Any change to the Twenty-Second Amendment would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states, thresholds that have not been approached despite occasional resolutions and public comments from President Trump and allies. Recent statements from Trump acknowledging the law's strength, combined with stalled proposals such as those introduced in early 2025, have reinforced trader consensus on the absence of viable legislative momentum before year-end. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unanticipated congressional supermajority vote or a successful legal challenge reinterpreting eligibility, though neither has materialized in credible form.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Thị trường mở: Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,091Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The stringent procedural barriers of the constitutional amendment process drive the 96.5% implied probability against repeal occurring in 2026. Any change to the Twenty-Second Amendment would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states, thresholds that have not been approached despite occasional resolutions and public comments from President Trump and allies. Recent statements from Trump acknowledging the law's strength, combined with stalled proposals such as those introduced in early 2025, have reinforced trader consensus on the absence of viable legislative momentum before year-end. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unanticipated congressional supermajority vote or a successful legal challenge reinterpreting eligibility, though neither has materialized in credible form.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Khối lượng
$13,091Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The stringent procedural barriers of the constitutional amendment process drive the 96.5% implied probability against repeal occurring in 2026. Any change to the Twenty-Second Amendment would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states, thresholds that have not been approached despite occasional resolutions and public comments from President Trump and allies. Recent statements from Trump acknowledging the law's strength, combined with stalled proposals such as those introduced in early 2025, have reinforced trader consensus on the absence of viable legislative momentum before year-end. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unanticipated congressional supermajority vote or a successful legal challenge reinterpreting eligibility, though neither has materialized in credible form.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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