Trump's second term, which began in January 2025 and runs through 2029, shows no signs of early departure as of mid-2026. Historical precedent reinforces trader consensus, with only one U.S. president having resigned since the nation's founding, and no comparable developments such as health crises, successful impeachment proceedings, or cabinet-level pressures have emerged to shift the outlook. Trump's public statements emphasize completing his full term, while administration turnover has remained confined to lower-level officials. Midterm elections in November 2026 could alter congressional dynamics, yet they fall short of the structural thresholds needed to force resignation. Late-stage scenarios including sudden medical incapacity, unforeseen legal reversals, or acute political isolation remain the primary variables that could still adjust probabilities before year-end 2026.