Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island in the Strait of Hormuz since seizing it in 1971 amid a long-standing territorial dispute with the United Arab Emirates, which continues to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels including the GCC and Arab League. Recent escalation in the US-Iran conflict has driven the most immediate developments, with US strikes targeting Iranian military assets on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in July 2026 to degrade coastal defenses and maritime capabilities. UAE forces have also reportedly conducted airstrikes on related sites amid broader disruptions to shipping. These actions have renewed focus on the islands' strategic role without confirmed changes in on-ground administration. Any shift in control would likely hinge on outcomes of active military operations, potential ground operations, or negotiated settlements within the ongoing conflict timeline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$88,419 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
1%
$88,419 交易量
8月31日
$81,751 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island in the Strait of Hormuz since seizing it in 1971 amid a long-standing territorial dispute with the United Arab Emirates, which continues to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels including the GCC and Arab League. Recent escalation in the US-Iran conflict has driven the most immediate developments, with US strikes targeting Iranian military assets on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in July 2026 to degrade coastal defenses and maritime capabilities. UAE forces have also reportedly conducted airstrikes on related sites amid broader disruptions to shipping. These actions have renewed focus on the islands' strategic role without confirmed changes in on-ground administration. Any shift in control would likely hinge on outcomes of active military operations, potential ground operations, or negotiated settlements within the ongoing conflict timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
交易量
$88,419結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island in the Strait of Hormuz since seizing it in 1971 amid a long-standing territorial dispute with the United Arab Emirates, which continues to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels including the GCC and Arab League. Recent escalation in the US-Iran conflict has driven the most immediate developments, with US strikes targeting Iranian military assets on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in July 2026 to degrade coastal defenses and maritime capabilities. UAE forces have also reportedly conducted airstrikes on related sites amid broader disruptions to shipping. These actions have renewed focus on the islands' strategic role without confirmed changes in on-ground administration. Any shift in control would likely hinge on outcomes of active military operations, potential ground operations, or negotiated settlements within the ongoing conflict timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$88,419結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island in the Strait of Hormuz since seizing it in 1971 amid a long-standing territorial dispute with the United Arab Emirates, which continues to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels including the GCC and Arab League. Recent escalation in the US-Iran conflict has driven the most immediate developments, with US strikes targeting Iranian military assets on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in July 2026 to degrade coastal defenses and maritime capabilities. UAE forces have also reportedly conducted airstrikes on related sites amid broader disruptions to shipping. These actions have renewed focus on the islands' strategic role without confirmed changes in on-ground administration. Any shift in control would likely hinge on outcomes of active military operations, potential ground operations, or negotiated settlements within the ongoing conflict timeline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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