Iran maintains military control over Abu Musa Island in the Persian Gulf, a position held since its 1971 seizure alongside the Tunb islands, which the UAE has consistently disputed through diplomatic channels including repeated calls for direct negotiations or referral to the International Court of Justice. The islands' location near the Strait of Hormuz gives them strategic value for maritime security and energy transit. Recent escalations in broader Iran-related conflicts during 2026 have included reported U.S. strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in mid-July, as well as earlier Emirati airstrikes, heightening focus on potential shifts in territorial control. Diplomatic backing for UAE claims has appeared in statements from the GCC and EU, though Iran has rejected such overtures and retained on-ground administration. No scheduled events or confirmed actions point to an imminent change in sovereignty as of mid-2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$88,312 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
<1%
$88,312 交易量
8月31日
$81,644 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains military control over Abu Musa Island in the Persian Gulf, a position held since its 1971 seizure alongside the Tunb islands, which the UAE has consistently disputed through diplomatic channels including repeated calls for direct negotiations or referral to the International Court of Justice. The islands' location near the Strait of Hormuz gives them strategic value for maritime security and energy transit. Recent escalations in broader Iran-related conflicts during 2026 have included reported U.S. strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in mid-July, as well as earlier Emirati airstrikes, heightening focus on potential shifts in territorial control. Diplomatic backing for UAE claims has appeared in statements from the GCC and EU, though Iran has rejected such overtures and retained on-ground administration. No scheduled events or confirmed actions point to an imminent change in sovereignty as of mid-2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
交易量
$88,312結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains military control over Abu Musa Island in the Persian Gulf, a position held since its 1971 seizure alongside the Tunb islands, which the UAE has consistently disputed through diplomatic channels including repeated calls for direct negotiations or referral to the International Court of Justice. The islands' location near the Strait of Hormuz gives them strategic value for maritime security and energy transit. Recent escalations in broader Iran-related conflicts during 2026 have included reported U.S. strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in mid-July, as well as earlier Emirati airstrikes, heightening focus on potential shifts in territorial control. Diplomatic backing for UAE claims has appeared in statements from the GCC and EU, though Iran has rejected such overtures and retained on-ground administration. No scheduled events or confirmed actions point to an imminent change in sovereignty as of mid-2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$88,312結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains military control over Abu Musa Island in the Persian Gulf, a position held since its 1971 seizure alongside the Tunb islands, which the UAE has consistently disputed through diplomatic channels including repeated calls for direct negotiations or referral to the International Court of Justice. The islands' location near the Strait of Hormuz gives them strategic value for maritime security and energy transit. Recent escalations in broader Iran-related conflicts during 2026 have included reported U.S. strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in mid-July, as well as earlier Emirati airstrikes, heightening focus on potential shifts in territorial control. Diplomatic backing for UAE claims has appeared in statements from the GCC and EU, though Iran has rejected such overtures and retained on-ground administration. No scheduled events or confirmed actions point to an imminent change in sovereignty as of mid-2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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