Anthropic’s strong revenue momentum and imminent IPO pricing drive the 83% market-implied probability it holds the higher valuation on December 31. Its amended S-1 sets a $70–$78 share range implying roughly $1.02 trillion on a non-diluted basis or up to $1.4 trillion fully diluted, supported by an $81 billion run-rate revenue as of late October and $17 billion in Q3 unaudited revenue. OpenAI closed an $11 billion tranche at a $1.25 trillion valuation in early November after scaling back from a $1.4 trillion target, following its March round at $852 billion post-money. Traders view Anthropic’s public-market debut and faster growth trajectory as likely to sustain or widen its edge by year-end despite shared sector pressures on AI spending.